Re: [asa] Calculation of probability for life to originate on Earth unintelligently

As a matter of fact, I think Koonin's calculation WAS for the entire
observable region of our universe. Even with the huge reaction vessel, the
probability still comes out vanishingly small.

What is surprising about all this is that Koonin is emphatically NOT a
creationist (indeed he's an enthusiastic supporter of Richard Dawkins), and
yet has done a calculation of the type I only saw done by creationists. He
then indulges in metaphysical speculation about the multiverse as a way of
getting round the problem. His motivation for this is apparently to have a
way of answering ID advocates.

My view is that it proves neither intelligent design nor the existence of
the multiverse. What it proves is that they haven't got a viable theory for
the origin of life yet, and they need to keep looking.

Iain

On Nov 12, 2007 5:05 AM, Jim Armstrong <jarmstro@qwest.net> wrote:

> And I'll put my two cents worth in again on this subject, that the very
> immensity of the reaction vessel that is our incomprehensively large
> universe intrinsically and significantly reduces any odds that you care to
> compute, especially when one factors in any intent that is "wired into" the
> orderly and apparently insistently fruitful design of the universe. JimA
> [Friend of ASA]
>
>
> D. F. Siemens, Jr. wrote:
>
> I love these computations based on ignorance. It wasn't that long ago that
> the dogma was that organic compounds could only be produced by living
> creatures. Now we know that amino acids are common in the universe. More
> recently the notion of jumping genes was generally rejected. But a Nobel was
> granted for the discovery. I recall the dogma that a gene could only produce
> one protein--of course with introns excised. Now we have to recognize that
> the genetic system is much more flexible. I also recall that similar
> compounds provide light sensitivity from protists to all higher branches of
> life. What was once certain has been found to be wrong. Additionally, there
> is the view that the unusual cannot happen. Yet every time a foursome sets
> out to play bridge, they arrive at something that has 1 chance in
> 80,658,175,170,943,878.571,660,636,856,403,766,975,289,505,440,883,277,
> 824,000,000,000,000.
> Dave (ASA)
>
> On Sun, 11 Nov 2007 15:34:55 -0800 "Lawrence Johnston" <
> johnston@uidaho.edu> writes:
> > Fellow ASA'ers:
> >
> > To my great joy and surprise, someone has made a calculation of the
> > probability for the origin of life on earth by natural process.
> >
> > http://www.biology-direct.com/content/2/1/15
> >
> > Eugene Koonin has made a calculation of this, and published it!
> >
> > His result is that the probability for this to happen on any one of
> > the
> > ~10^(21) earthlike planets in the Universe, during the life of the
> > universe, is (gasp):
> >
> > Probability = 10^(-1018)
> >
> > The OOL scenario that he bases his calculation on, is the RNA FIRST
> >
> > scenario, probably the most popular scenario proposed.
> >
> > He anticipates the outrage this will cause, amongst the many
> > academics
> > whose worldview is Naturalism, so he hides behind the usual
> > multi-universe
> > theory, in which any improbable process can happen any number of
> > times.
> > (aren't we lucky to be in one of those fortunate universes?)
> >
> > He prepares his hiding place in the early part of the paper, and
> > saves the
> > bad news of the calculation for an appendix at the end. Fortunately
> > I
> > guess he must have a secure job at the NIH (National Institute of
> > Health).
> >
> > He also pronounces the usual anathema against ID.
> >
> > Lawrence Johnston
> >
> > "Subtle is the Lord, but malicious He is not"
> >
> > A. Einstein
> > ==========================================================
> > Lawrence H. Johnston home: 917 E. 8th st.
> > professor of physics, emeritus Moscow, Id 83843
> > University of Idaho (208) 882-2765
> > Fellow of the American Physical Society
> > http://www.uidaho.edu/~johnston/HOMEPA~1.HTM<http://www.uidaho.edu/%7Ejohnston/HOMEPA%7E1.HTM>=============
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe, send a message to majordomo@calvin.edu with
> > "unsubscribe asa" (no quotes) as the body of the message.
> >
> >
>
>
>

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