RE: [asa] Calculation of probability for life to originate on Earth unintelligently

> Probability = 10^(-1018)

Sounds like a Nobel Prize candidate to me! I'll give you five to two
odds he spent less than two minutes on the calculation, and two to one
it will be in the next issue of Acts and Facts.

Dick Fischer

Dick Fischer, Genesis Proclaimed Association

Finding Harmony in Bible, Science, and History

www.genesisproclaimed.org

-----Original Message-----
From: asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu [mailto:asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu] On
Behalf Of Lawrence Johnston
Sent: Sunday, November 11, 2007 6:35 PM
To: ASA
Subject: [asa] Calculation of probability for life to originate on Earth
unintelligently

Fellow ASA'ers:

To my great joy and surprise, someone has made a calculation of the

probability for the origin of life on earth by natural process.

http://www.biology-direct.com/content/2/1/15

Eugene Koonin has made a calculation of this, and published it!

His result is that the probability for this to happen on any one of the

~10^(21) earthlike planets in the Universe, during the life of the

universe, is (gasp):

Probability = 10^(-1018)

The OOL scenario that he bases his calculation on, is the RNA FIRST

scenario, probably the most popular scenario proposed.

He anticipates the outrage this will cause, amongst the many academics

whose worldview is Naturalism, so he hides behind the usual
multi-universe

theory, in which any improbable process can happen any number of times.

(aren't we lucky to be in one of those fortunate universes?)

He prepares his hiding place in the early part of the paper, and saves
the

bad news of the calculation for an appendix at the end. Fortunately I

guess he must have a secure job at the NIH (National Institute of
Health).

He also pronounces the usual anathema against ID.

Lawrence Johnston

"Subtle is the Lord, but malicious He is not"

A. Einstein

==========================================================

Lawrence H. Johnston home: 917 E. 8th st.

professor of physics, emeritus Moscow, Id 83843

University of Idaho (208) 882-2765

Fellow of the American Physical Society

http://www.uidaho.edu/~johnston/HOMEPA~1.HTM =============

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Received on Mon Nov 12 00:06:44 2007