Re: [asa] Calculation of probability for life to originate on Earth unintelligently

D.F. Siemens wrote:

> Additionally, there is the view that the unusual cannot happen. Yet every
> time a foursome sets out to play bridge, they arrive at something that has 1
> chance in that has 1 chance in 80,658,175,170,943,878.571
> ,660,636,856,403,766,975,289,505,440,883,277,
> 824,000,000,000,000.
>

This is a typically crass argument that gets tediously trotted out again and
again on this list as though it proves something. In Koonin's terms it has
to be one highly specific bridge hand that gets dealt. Sure, any bridge
hand has the same probability, but I guarantee that if you sat down at a
bridge table and dealt the cards and you all got 13 of the same suit each,
that you'd suspect someone had messed with the pack. Koonin's solution
(which at least has more merit than your argument) is to postulate zillions
of bridge hands being dealt in parallel universes.

Iain

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Received on Mon Nov 12 03:31:50 2007