Re: [asa] $4 gas is here to stay

On 6/4/08, Glenn Morton <glennmorton@entouch.net> wrote:

> Last month there was a discussion of $4 gasoline and is it here to stay. Way
> back in 1999 I wrote an article entitled "The Coming Energy Crisis, which
> was eventually published in the ASA in 2000.

FWIW, Glenn, I did not think you "nutty" back then or now.

Using some of your thinking, I added an article on my web site
predicting $4 gas by last summer. Later, I revised it to this summer.

Now where are we going? There are suddenly all sorts of alternative
energies and auto-propellents being developed. I see these --
eventually -- having an effect, even as conservation and car pooling
have an effect. But slow -- and the ramp getting there will be
painful.

My guess is $6.00 gas next summer -- and this is independent of what
candidate wins in November.

Here is another perspective though:

I keep records a lot. Recently I found my auto records from 1962-1964.
An analysis of these may be of interest. All numbers rounded.

1. My primary car during these years was a simple sedan, getting 13
mpg on 32c gas.
2. The inflation factor 1963 to 2007 is about 7.
3. So I really paid $2.24 for gas. 17c per mile.
4. My daughter today also has a simple sedan. It gets on average 26 mpg
5. You can do the math. She pays less per mile today than I did in
1962-64. At $4.00, 15c per mile.

Her car has A/C, and a host of gadgets that mine (in 1962) were
luxuries or only pipe dreams. .

In 1963 I bought a Chevy compact -- 19 mpg. Now my cost was 12c per
mile. But I had to pay (in 2007 dollars) about $20,000. Still no AC or
other amenities though.

I think my daughter might be able to buy a 32 mpg economy car -- that
would get her per mile cost down to 12c also.

So -- $4.00 a gallon is "OK." At least for now.

Burgy

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Received on Thu Jun 5 10:53:29 2008