Re: [asa] FW: Temperature Monitors Report Widescale Global Cooling

On Fri, Feb 29, 2008 at 7:48 AM, Dave Wallace <wdwllace@sympatico.ca> wrote:

> Randy Isaac wrote:
> > Don,
> > This is a good time to remind everyone of the difference between
> > climate and weather. No climate model will predict the weather for any
> > month. One monthly fluctuation says nothing about climate.
> > You say you don't trust any global climate model. I recently
> > summarized the oceanic data that showed rather convincingly independent
> > from any of the global climate models that we have an anthropogenic
> > source of doubling of atmospheric carbon and that the equilibrium global
> > temperature is about 3C warmer than we have it today. Skepticism of
> > models is no longer an excuse for being a GW skeptic.
> >
>
> Randy
>
> OK I think most of us agree that a month's average weather is not
> climate. My question is how long a period is required before the
> average would be considered to be climate? One season (3mths), a year,
> five years, ten years?

One month is long enough to be considered climate but we are talking about
climate *change*. When you look for a long term trend it is absolutely
forbidden to pick the highest number and the last number and create a
"trend" between them. See my analysis below to show a better way of
detecting the long-term trend. Don's comment about not be predicted is also
not true. Everybody (including the computer models that Don distrusts) was
predicting La Nina which is what produces climate change where the "change"
is on the order of months. AGW rate of change is measured in decades not
months. You need to smooth out the noise in order to see the trends. In the
80s and 90s it was fair to complain that we didn't have enough data to
detect the trend (both for detecting the secular trend and for determining
its cause to a 90% certainty). We do now and to claim otherwise is simply
irresponsible.

>
> Did you post the summary on oceanic data? I looked for it over the last
> few months and did not find anything.

Here's the SST data from the Hadley Center (I went back to 1998 which an El
Nino of the century). For January's data I did a 12-month rolling average
starting with February 07.

1998 0.451
1999 0.209
2000 0.219
2001 0.335
2002 0.376
2003 0.406
2004 0.383
2005 0.383
2006 0.340
2007 0.278
2008 0.280

For comparison purposes here's the global temperature record:

1998 0.526
1999 0.302
2000 0.277
2001 0.406
2002 0.455
2003 0.465
2004 0.444
2005 0.475
2006 0.422
2007 0.397
2008 0.382

What you see are the top ten hottest temperatures for all of recorded
history showing up in the last ten years. So WHERE'S THE GLOBAL
COOLING????!!????

Rich Blinne, Member ASA

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Received on Fri Feb 29 12:57:16 2008