Re: [asa] Calculation of probability for life to originate on Earth unintelligently

On Nov 13, 2007 11:17 PM, <philtill@aol.com> wrote:

> But in the absence of any known chemical pathway that predicts life to be
> very probable, and in the absence of more than one ecosphere in the
> universe, then the most logical thing to do is to accept that there might
> not be any probable pathway for life in this universe. This is an
> inescapable result of adopting eternally inflationary cosmology. We can't
> accept that cosmology without accepting its ramifications, can we? Note
> that this puts the leading cosmology on equal par with belief in God as the
> cause of life.
>
> This is not a science-killer, because it is still an extraordinarily
> interesting question and we still have not found out the _most_ probable
> path to life and so we will continue to fund research in this field. But
> really, what basis do we have to say that there must be a more probable
> pathway to life?
>

Yes, you are right there, and perhaps I put it too strongly. But the
problem I have with Koonin's whole approach is as you say that it puts it on
an equal par with belief in God, and therefore, it seems to me isn't any
better as a _scientific_ explanation for how life came about. This is
reflected in the fact that some of the reviewers criticized Koonin for
speculating in metaphysics. In an eternally inflationary cosmos, _anything_
can be explained - it has unlimited explanatory power. While it is
certainly true that if this theory is true then there will be universes
where the incredibly improbable event Koonin requires for life starting up
will have happened. However, it seems to me this is just as much an
argument from ignorance as the ID argument. If it turns out (and I agree
now that it doesn't have to turn out that way), that there is a much more
probable pathway to life, then we are for the same reason much more likely
to be living in a universe where this more probable pathway was what
happened, rather than Koonin's spectacular coincidence in extremely rare
universes.

Iain

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Received on Wed Nov 14 04:14:59 2007