Re: [asa] Calculation of probability for life to originate on Earth unintelligently

and that therefore, if the current model gives a vanishingly small probability of it happening then the current model is wrong and we haven't solved the problem. A better theory will no doubt emerge in time as we get to know more, which gives a much higher probability of life starting up.?

Iain, I think this conclusion isn't tenable.? Koonin is explaining what must be true if the leading cosmology theory happens to be true.? He points out that one inescapable conclusion of eternally inflationary cosmology is that we already have a completely sufficient explanation for the origin of life.? And if there is already a completely sufficient explanation, then there is absolutely no reason to claim that there must be _another_ explanation.? Why indeed must there be another?? What kind of logic could ever disagree with Koonin's simple observation??

If it turned out that the cosmology is wrong, then indeed there must be a different explanation than the model Koonin has used for his calculations.? Or if we find more than one isolated ecosphere in the universe, then it will be very improbable that the inflationary cosmology alone is the explanation for life since it would predict no more than 1 ecosphere in the vast majority of universes.? (See -- this is testable.)?

But in the absence of any known chemical pathway that predicts life to be very probable, and in the absence of more than one ecosphere in the universe, then the most logical thing to do is to accept that there might not be any probable pathway for life in this universe.? This is an inescapable result of adopting eternally inflationary cosmology.? We can't accept that cosmology without accepting its ramifications, can we?? Note that this puts the leading cosmology on equal par with belief in God as the cause of life.

This is not a science-killer, because it is still an extraordinarily interesting question and we still have not found out the _most_ probable path to life and so we will continue to fund research in this field.? But really, what basis do we have to say that there must be a more probable pathway to life?

Phil

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Received on Tue Nov 13 18:18:17 2007