Re: [asa] Calculation of probability for life to originate on Earth unintelligently

Yet every time a foursome sets
> out to play bridge, they arrive at something that has 1 chance in
> 80,658,175,170,943,878.571,660,636,856,403,766,975,289,505,440,883,277,
> 824,000,000,000,000.
> Dave (ASA)
>
>
Isn't this about 1 in 10^70?

How does this compare to 1 in 10^1018?

Didn't John Wheeler say events with a probability of less than in 1 in
10^50 don't happen? He surely didnt mean 'dont happen anywhere in the
universe' with that number. He surely meant 'don't happen in a local
scenario'??? Or did he?

I'm left wondering the following: If we had people sitting playing
bridge everywhere, covering the entire surface of the earth,
covering the entire surface of every planet in the universe, how
would their outcomes compare with 1 in 10^-1018?
Would that be useful?
Would a multiverse be required to get a particular result in bridge?

If one wants to show the possibility that a particular bridge hand
will be a particular outcome with a believable chance then what one
has to do, at a minimum, is show that it is possible that all the
possible players playing for all the possible time will have "fair
odds" of hitting the specified outcome. This would be sufficient to
debunk the proffered Koonin argument.

Has it been achieved?

Best Regards,
David Clounch (ASA)

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Received on Mon Nov 12 09:25:01 2007