[asa] Freeman Dyson on Climate Change

 From an Interview with Dyson reproduced on UnC
http://www.uncommondescent.com/intelligent-design/interview-with-freeman-dyson/#more-2258

<quote>
Concerning the climate models, I know enough of the details to be sure
that they are unreliable. They are full of fudge factors that are fitted
to the existing climate, so the models more or less agree with the
observed data. But there is no reason to believe that the same fudge
factors would give the right behavior in a world with different
chemistry, for example in a world with increased CO2 in the atmosphere.
</quote> Dyson

Essentially he is talking about curve fitting by adjusting the fudge
factors which is an issue I raised a while back. This is the kind of
reason that I am in favor of actions that address smog, peak fossil fuel
and greenhouse gases, at least as a strong initial priority.

For example few people will deny that smog is caused by burning fossil
fuel. Even if Glenn is wrong by a few decades in terms of peak oil,
fossil fuel is limited especially considering the increasing demand from
China and India. Pushing intercity trucks and short haul air flights to
use rail, seems to be a big win for all three concerns at least north of
the 49th parallel but I would assume in the US as well. Heating and
insulation in houses is also another similar win, especially wrt older
or poorly built houses. When the temperature goes to -30F with a high
of -20F, I feel cold spots very readily in our house even though we have
been making improvements over the years.

From
http://www.railcan.ca/documents/publications/2006_10_24_DOH_Sustainable_en.pdf
<quote>
Per passenger or tonne, rail generates only one-fifth
the greenhouse gas emissions of trucking, one-quarter
the emissions of urban automobiles, and one-third the
emissions of inter-city automobiles or planes in densely
populated corridors.
In Canada, approximately one-quarter of national greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions are from the transportation
sector. Transport emissions actually rose 30 per cent between
1990 and 2004 to 190 megatonnes, the most recent
data available across all transport modes, with more than
half of the increase a result of road freight.
</quote>

(A tonne is a metric ton, 2200lbs appx.)

Of course the models could be wrong the other way and be underestimating
the impact of CO2 and eventually positive feedbacks could kick in like
melting of the permafrost or the icecaps.

Dave W

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Received on Mon Apr 16 20:45:27 2007