Re: Hugh Ross's flat prediction

Burgy wrote:

> I do think it is a virtual certainty that at some point SETI or a like
> research programme will conclude that extraterrestrial life does exist
> (it may be a false positive, of course). At that point Ross will find
> himself in arguments he really does not want to pursue.
>

By now, with a large part of the emr band scanned over
the last 50 years, it would seem like we are rather
"isolated" so I am not so persuaded that they will
find something. Nevertheless, even if SETI doesn't
find anything, that does not mean that life does not
exist anywhere else in the universe.

One of the optimistic parameters in the Drake equation
that Carl Sagan & co used involved the survival of
an advanced civilization. Ross also manipulates the
Drake equation to his own purposes. Clearly, Sagan
was far too optimistic in his estimates, but I am
not sure if Ross is swinging the other way. It seems
the truth is that we just don't know and the error
bars should be drawn very wide on a logarithmic plot.

By Grace alone we proceed,
Wayne
Received on Sun Mar 28 17:32:08 2004