From: bivalve (bivalve@mail.davidson.alumlink.com)
Date: Thu Nov 07 2002 - 12:13:47 EST
>My "version" is simply the concept that if we had ability to apply
>all the appropriate variables required to generate a probability for
>various occurences, we could determine if they are within the scope
>of chance or not, referring to what is defined as specified
>complexity...The trick here is assigning the appropriate values to
>all the appropriate variables...<
I largely agree with this criterion for testing whether intelligent
intervention is a more plausible explanation than ordinary action of
natural forces. However, there are at least two details beyond the
difficulty of implementation that affect it.
As a rule, this method will tell us whether the random probability is
so low as to make another explanation preferable, rather than being
able to truly rule out random events. The only exception is if we
can truly assign a zero probability to something.
The complexity must be pre-specified, an issue that Dembski has noted
but not solved to my satisfaction.
hwkurgtrawhgtuszhrgturehbgjsdfhgbhfgbrbrewbfwbfrshgbrer is a complex
sequence of letters, and could be made more complex by my randomly
banging on the keys for longer. The probability that I would
generate that exact sequence of letters is very low. However, the
probability that I would generate some sequence of letters was 1,
assuming that the computer works. Only by having a narrow goal, not
defined with reference to the results, can the random interpretation
be adequatey tested. Without a good idea of the relevant
probabilities, we cannot tell if we have a decent test case, much
less the result of the test.
Dr. David Campbell
Old Seashells
University of Alabama
Biodiversity & Systematics
Dept. Biological Sciences
Box 870345
Tuscaloosa, AL 35487 USA
bivalve@mail.davidson.alumlink.com
That is Uncle Joe, taken in the masonic regalia of a Grand Exalted
Periwinkle of the Mystic Order of Whelks-P.G. Wodehouse, Romance at
Droitgate Spa
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