Re: Evidence and proof; was More on Gosse's OMPHALOS

From: Iain Strachan (iain@istrachan.clara.co.uk)
Date: Fri Feb 16 2001 - 13:49:06 EST

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    George wrote:

    > 1) My basic point, which I will restate as bluntly as possible,
    > remains. The "nobody was around to see what happened" (or "we can't see
    the
    > past") argument is utterly inept and cannot be used by anyone who has any
    > knowledge of the way the world works.

    I don't want to pick an argument here, and I sense from the perjorative
    words that you use, such as "utterly inept" that you are piqued. I will
    just say that I don't consider the following to be "utterly inept":

    "Where were you when I laid the earth's foundation? Tell me, if you
    understand." (Job 38:4).

    I have no objection to theorising, as long as it is made quite clear that it
    is theorising. I started this thread by objecting to the statement that
    shared DNA code was "conclusive proof" of Darwinism. It seems to me that
    all too often theory is confused with fact. I am sure we are all aware that
    atheists like Richard Dawkins use evolution as a battering ram to preach
    their message that there is no God.

    The first chapter of "The Selfish Gene" is entitled "Why are people?". At
    the end of the first para, Dawkins writes:

    Darwin made it possible for us to give a sensible answer to the curious
    child whose question heads this chapter. We no longer have to resort to
    superstition when faced with the deep problems: Is there a meaning to life?
    What are we for? What is man? After posing the last of these questions,
    the eminent zoologist G.G. Simpson put it thus: "The point I want to now is
    that all attempts to answer that question before 1859 are worthless and that
    we will be better off if we ignore them completely".

    I believe that man is the creation of God, as I'm sure we all do on this
    list. Evolution is the current attempt of mankind to describe "How" that
    happened. But Dawkins, I think, would have you believe that it answers the
    "why" as well. I think the import of the Job verse has to be that any
    attempt to answer the "Why" question before or since 1859 is worthless.
    Let's get on with the science, and try to find out about the "How". One
    day, when we no longer see through a glass darkly, and see God face to face,
    I believe we will know "why".

    > 2) Many "creationists", & not only those of the YEC variety, don't
    like
    > theories, labelling them speculation, against common sense, &c. But if
    they try
    > to deal with observational data at all they MUST theorize. The problem is
    that
    > they don't know how to do it! A common approach which shows up in many
    YEC
    > claims (e.g., changing speed of light, shrinking sun, decay of earth's
    magnetic
    > field) is to take some data gathered in the past couple of centuries &
    > extrapolate that data into the distant past. If you're not careful that
    may
    > mean you're just extrapolating observational uncertainties or errors,
    which can
    > just produce nonsense. (Though sometimes one just gets lucky, as with
    Lowell's
    > prediction of Planet X.)
    > The more fundamental error, however, is the failure to realize
    that what
    > they're doing IS theorizing. In order to extrapolate, you have to make a
    more
    > or less intelligent guess about the form
    > of the curve you're going to use - linear, exponential, or whatever. & of
    > course that's a theory. But just drawing a curve through points on a
    graph
    > without having any ideas about the underlying physical processes isn't
    likely to
    > give any real insight.
    > This doesn't mean that extrapolation is always worthless, but you
    need
    > to have some idea how & why to do it. E.g., extrapolation of changes in
    the
    > earth's magnetic field as simple exponential decay would make sense IF the
    field
    > were simply frozen in to a fluid conducting core. In fact, you don't even
    need
    > any data to determine that with such a model the half-life for decay of
    the
    > field would be a few thousand years. But there are good reasons for
    rejecting
    > such a model.
    > In other words, if you're going to do theoretical physics, learn
    to do
    > it right. & you can't do that if you're contemptuous of the whole concept
    of
    > scientific theory.
    >

    I think we're in agreement over this. I am certainly not contemptuous of
    the whole concept of a scientific theory. But I am contemptuous of the
    practice of clinging to a manifestly bad theory in the absence of anything
    better. It would be better to remain agnostic, and say "we just don't
    know". To cling to the idea that the speed of light must have slowed down
    by several orders of magnitude over the last 6000 years in the absence of
    any other way to reconcile the biblical timescale is a "scientific theory"
    which it is right to hold in contempt, particularly as the only evidence is
    the tail of a curve of noisy and inaccurate measurements. (YEC cosmologist
    Russel Humphries utterly rejects the variable speed of light notion; though
    I'm not at all convinced that his alternative theories are sustainable given
    observational data; but they are certainly more respectable that the
    decaying speed of light idea).

    As far as evolution is concerned; I remain an agnostic. If it happened at
    all (leaving out the question of timescale), then I don't think that
    "copying errors" and natural selection are sufficient to make it happen even
    in a billions of years timescale.

    As a matter of interest, I often wonder why Dawkins makes such a play of
    "Copying errors", or mutations. In the Genetic Algorithms community, it has
    largely been recognised that "Crossover" (ie. genetic recombination) does
    most of the hard work, with "mutation" playing a comparatively minor role of
    maintaining diversity in the population. In practice, what really does most
    of the hard work is a heuristic known as "elitist selection". What this
    means is that the best individual in a population is cloned so an exact copy
    of it is preserved without crossover or mutation to the next generation.
    That way the fitness always monotonically increases. That seems to be the
    "hand of God" if ever I saw it. It usually makes the difference between the
    GA being able to solve the problem and not being able to solve it.

    All the best,
    Iain.



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