A lack of integrity was not implied nor should it be inferred. The
confirmation bias I was referring to was the bias that more earth
scientists agreed with him than actually did. Since it requires being able
to get past your own experience it is probably one of the most difficult to
eradicate even with great effort.
Rich Blinne
Member ASA
On Apr 29, 2009 1:13pm, "John Burgeson (ASA member)"
<hossradbourne@gmail.com> wrote:
> "Since petroleum geologists have a vested interest because moving away
> from fossil fuels affects their livelihood this appears to support the
> idea of confirmation bias."
> Rich -- I totally reject that particular argument. Integrity in
> science and avoidance of bias was a foundational principle drilled
> into me as an undergrad at Carnegie Tech. I suggest that a person who
> violates that principle will, sooner or later, find his life work as
> flipping burgers.
> I have had an ongoing argument with Glenn and others on this; I call
> it a "silly" argument regardless of what side proposes it. It is
> "silly" because it gains one no agreement except by those already
> convinced of the "rightness" of your cause.
> jb
> On 4/29/09, Rich Blinne rich.blinne@gmail.com> wrote:
> > On Tue, Apr 28, 2009 at 9:22 AM, William Hamilton
> > willeugenehamilton@gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> >> It's not an argument I'm making. I'm only summarizing what Glenn
> >> Morton has told me. And yes, I agree that a 2 meter increase in sea
> >> level would wipe out a lot of places. And I wouldn't want to live in
> >> Phoenix now.
> >>
> >
> > And Glenn is misrepresenting the consensus in the geological community.
> A
> > poll was take of earth scientists and among *all earth scientists, 90%
> > support the view that the earth has warmed significantly* since 1800.
> And *
> > 82%* support the idea that *humans have caused this increase*.
> > *Among climatologists* specifically -- that is those that publish peer
> > review articles in that field -- *an astounding 97% support the idea
> that
> > humans are causing global warming*. Presumably an even higher number
> > support
> > global warming in general.
> >
> > The most skeptical group were petroleum geologists where only 47%
> > supported anthropogenic global warming. The findings appeared January 19
> > in
> > the publication *Eos Transactions*, an online publication of the
> American
> > Geophysical Union.
> >
> > Since petroleum geologists have a vested interest because moving away
> from
> > fossil fuels affects their livelihood this appears to support the idea
> of
> > confirmation bias. I guess you say the same of the climatologists but
> that
> > point is weaker since the relatively unbiased middle sides with the
> > climatologists and not the petroleum geologists. Regardless, it shows a
> > personal confirmation bias on the part of Glenn since he imputed his
> > personal experience amongst his petroleum geologist peers not realizing
> the
> > wider geological community disagreed. Perhaps Keith Miller could
> comment on
> > whether he believes this particular poll accurately describes the wider
> > geological community.
> >
> > Rich Blinne
> > Member ASA
> >
> --
> Burgy
> www.burgy.50megs.com
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Received on Wed Apr 29 15:31:40 2009
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