Re: [asa] Re: Confirmation bias among GW dissenters, but ...

"Since petroleum geologists have a vested interest because moving away
from fossil fuels affects their livelihood this appears to support the
idea of confirmation bias."

Rich -- I totally reject that particular argument. Integrity in
science and avoidance of bias was a foundational principle drilled
into me as an undergrad at Carnegie Tech. I suggest that a person who
violates that principle will, sooner or later, find his life work as
flipping burgers.

I have had an ongoing argument with Glenn and others on this; I call
it a "silly" argument regardless of what side proposes it. It is
"silly" because it gains one no agreement except by those already
convinced of the "rightness" of your cause.

jb

On 4/29/09, Rich Blinne <rich.blinne@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Tue, Apr 28, 2009 at 9:22 AM, William Hamilton <
> willeugenehamilton@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> It's not an argument I'm making. I'm only summarizing what Glenn
>> Morton has told me. And yes, I agree that a 2 meter increase in sea
>> level would wipe out a lot of places. And I wouldn't want to live in
>> Phoenix now.
>>
>
> And Glenn is misrepresenting the consensus in the geological community. A
> poll was take of earth scientists and among *all earth scientists, 90%
> support the view that the earth has warmed significantly* since 1800. And *
> 82%* support the idea that *humans have caused this increase*.
> *Among climatologists* specifically -- that is those that publish peer
> review articles in that field -- *an astounding 97% support the idea that
> humans are causing global warming*. Presumably an even higher number
> support
> global warming in general.
>
> The most skeptical group were petroleum geologists where only 47%
> supported anthropogenic global warming. The findings appeared January 19
> in
> the publication *Eos Transactions*, an online publication of the American
> Geophysical Union.
>
> Since petroleum geologists have a vested interest because moving away from
> fossil fuels affects their livelihood this appears to support the idea of
> confirmation bias. I guess you say the same of the climatologists but that
> point is weaker since the relatively unbiased middle sides with the
> climatologists and not the petroleum geologists. Regardless, it shows a
> personal confirmation bias on the part of Glenn since he imputed his
> personal experience amongst his petroleum geologist peers not realizing the
> wider geological community disagreed. Perhaps Keith Miller could comment on
> whether he believes this particular poll accurately describes the wider
> geological community.
>
> Rich Blinne
> Member ASA
>

-- 
Burgy
www.burgy.50megs.com
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