On Wed, Feb 27, 2008 at 4:48 AM, John Walley <john_walley@yahoo.com> wrote:
> Has anyone seen this?
>
> John
>
>
>
Yes. This is cherry-picking of the worst sort. We are currently at solar
minimum and in a La Nina pattern. This will cause things to be colder. Last
January we were in a moderate El Nino. It's bad enough when yearly averages
are being compared and now it's comparing two monthly averages which are
subject to further revision. The cooling "trend" happens by comparing the
warmest January since records have been kept (by a lot) against the merely
the 31st warmest. The graph cited is the monthly anomaly and it's the one
that is NOT variance adjusted. It's still positive. Note since this is near
zero the assumption is that it wiped out a hundred years of warming (for a
single month) but that's not true either. The anomaly is to the average of
1961-1990. Note that ALL of the graph is positive and only goes back to
1988. For all of warming to be eliminated another 0.5 degrees C would have
to drop since the base line is an anomaly of - 0.5 degrees C. (A more
detailed analysis can be found here:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/jan/global.html#temp )
In order to get around the fact they were comparing one months of anomaly
against another I did averages of Feb 06 - Jan 07 vs. Feb. 07 - Jan 08 of
the variance-adjusted HadCrut3v numbers. The former had an anomaly of .484
degrees C and the latter .382 degrees C for a whopping drop of 0.1 degrees
C! We're going into an ice age! Buy coat stocks!
Rich Blinne, Member ASA
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Received on Wed Feb 27 12:05:52 2008
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