RE: [asa] Improbability of Homo Sapiens?

HI David, you wrote:

>This seems flawed to me. It seems to adopt the stance that evolution
equals some sort of steady, linear progress. I thought that notion had
been discarded years ago.

"Seems" is the operative word. I'm a punctuated equilibrium devotee.

>It seems to me no less appropriate to see God's providence in
evolution.

I don't think we disagree.

Dick Fischer

Dick Fischer, Genesis Proclaimed Association

Finding Harmony in Bible, Science, and History

 <http://www.genesisproclaimed.org> www.genesisproclaimed.org

-----Original Message-----
From: asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu [mailto:asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu] On
Behalf Of David Opderbeck
Sent: Friday, February 09, 2007 1:46 PM
To: Dick Fischer
Cc: ASA
Subject: Re: [asa] Improbability of Homo Sapiens?

The part they leave out is that once life starts, and knowing that life
forms evolve, over time new creatures more adapted will come into being.
The probability is high that better adapted creatures will evolve over
time given natural selection. The probability is low that you can
predict what life forms will eventually come into being. Creationists
confuse probability with predictability.

This seems flawed to me. It seems to adopt the stance that evolution
equals some sort of steady, linear progress. I thought that notion had
been discarded years ago. The fact that organisms will adapt to
selective pressures, that some extremely rare mutations may confer a
survival advantage, and that genetic drift may cause changes in a
lineage, says nothing at all about the probability that such a process
will result in creatures like us who are able to reflect and converse
about these mechanisms.

Any one of a zillion contingencies could have affected the course of
evolution such that nothing like us ever arose. Given everything that
had to happen just right, it's more likely that the earth today would be
nothing but an algae swamp -- or even more likely, another barren,
lifeless icy space rock.

It seems to me very like the probability that this sperm cell would fuse
with this egg cell on this day and would produce a viable baby to be
raised by these parents in this time and place under these circumstances
to produce this person. We are "fearfully and wonderfully made," and we
are each the product of God's providence, as the Psalmist said (Ps.
139). It seems to me no less appropriate to see God's providence in
evolution.

On 2/9/07, Dick Fischer <dickfischer@verizon.net> wrote:
>
>
>
>
> Every time a woman's egg is conceived some 30 million sperm cells
compete to be the lucky guy. The chance that any one will be successful
is so small, why bother making the effort. (That's why I don't play the
lottery.) Yet if conception occurs, one was successful. And whenever a
particular sperm cell wins the race it effectively beats the odds. So
it is unlikely any chosen cell will win the race to conceive, but the
likelihood is high that one will. Creationists like to say that
improbable events necessitate Godly intervention. The part they leave
out is that once life starts, and knowing that life forms evolve, over
time new creatures more adapted will come into being. The probability
is high that better adapted creatures will evolve over time given
natural selection. The probability is low that you can predict what
life forms will eventually come into being. Creationists confuse
probability with predictability.
>
>
>
> If you drive a car for 30-40 years the likelihood is high that you
will run into somebody. That's probability. The likelihood is low that
you will know in advance who that other driver will be. That's
predictability.
>
>
>
>
> Dick Fischer
>
> Dick Fischer, Genesis Proclaimed Association
>
> Finding Harmony in Bible, Science, and History
>
> www.genesisproclaimed.org
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu [mailto: asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu
<mailto:asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu> ] On Behalf Of Johan Jammart
> Sent: Friday, February 09, 2007 5:41 AM
> To: asa@calvin.edu
> Subject: [asa] Improbability of Homo Sapiens?
>
>
>
>
> Quote
>
>
>
> In 1986 the consensus among such biologists that the evolutionary path
from primitive Cambrian chordates, e.g. Pikaia, to homo sapiens was a
highly improbable event. For example, the large brains of humans have
marked adaptive disadvantages, requiring as they do an expensive
metabolism, a long gestation period, and a childhood lasting more than
25% of the average total life span. Other improbable features of humans
include:
>
> * Being the only extant bipedal land vertebrate. Combined with an
unusual eye-hand coordination, this permits dextrous manipulations of
the physical environment with the hands;
> * A vocal apparatus far more expressive than that of any other
mammal, enabling speech. Speech makes it possible for humans to interact
cooperatively, to share knowledge, and to acquire a culture;
> * The capability of formulating abstractions to a degree
permitting the invention of mathematics, and the discovery of science
and technology. Keep in mind how recently humans acquired anything like
their current scientific and technological sophistication.
>
>
> Few questions here that are important for my theological reflection
(as it is my domain of interest) as it seem that the evolution to homo
sapiens seems improbable.
>
> What if homo sapiens did not arise from evolution?
>
> 1) Is other form of intelligent life (like human intelligence)
improbable with the evolution?
>
> 2) Is the evolution of humanoids improbable?
>
> 3) How could God knew that evolution would bring creature that will be
able to have relationship with Him? Of course He is omniscient but in
His omniscience He had to choose a process that would bring intelligent
life.
>
>
> Blessings,
>
> Johan
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-- 
David W. Opderbeck
Web:  http://www.davidopderbeck.com
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