Re: [asa] Improbability of Homo Sapiens?

*The part they leave out is that once life starts, and knowing that life
forms evolve, over time new creatures more adapted will come into being.
The probability is high that better adapted creatures will evolve over time
given natural selection. The probability is low that you can predict what
life forms will eventually come into being. Creationists confuse
probability with predictability.*
**
This seems flawed to me. It seems to adopt the stance that evolution equals
some sort of steady, linear progress. I thought that notion had been
discarded years ago. The fact that organisms will adapt to selective
pressures, that some extremely rare mutations may confer a survival
advantage, and that genetic drift may cause changes in a lineage, says
nothing at all about the probability that such a process will result in
creatures like us who are able to reflect and converse about these
mechanisms.

Any one of a zillion contingencies could have affected the course of
evolution such that nothing like us ever arose. Given everything that had
to happen just right, it's more likely that the earth today would be nothing
but an algae swamp -- or even more likely, another barren, lifeless icy
space rock.

It seems to me very like the probability that *this* sperm cell would fuse
with *this* egg cell on *this* day and would produce a viable baby to be
raised by *these* parents in *this* time and place under
*these*circumstances to produce
*this *person. We are "fearfully and wonderfully made," and we are each the
product of God's providence, as the Psalmist said (Ps. 139). It seems to me
no less appropriate to see God's providence in evolution.

On 2/9/07, Dick Fischer <dickfischer@verizon.net> wrote:
>
>
>
>
> Every time a woman's egg is conceived some 30 million sperm cells compete
to be the lucky guy. The chance that any one will be successful is so
small, why bother making the effort. (That's why I don't play the
lottery.) Yet if conception occurs, one was successful. And whenever a
particular sperm cell wins the race it effectively beats the odds. So it is
unlikely any chosen cell will win the race to conceive, but the likelihood
is high that one will. Creationists like to say that improbable events
necessitate Godly intervention. The part they leave out is that once life
starts, and knowing that life forms evolve, over time new creatures more
adapted will come into being. The probability is high that better adapted
creatures will evolve over time given natural selection. The probability is
low that you can predict what life forms will eventually come into being.
Creationists confuse probability with predictability.
>
>
>
> If you drive a car for 30-40 years the likelihood is high that you will
run into somebody. That's probability. The likelihood is low that you will
know in advance who that other driver will be. That's predictability.
>
>
>
>
> Dick Fischer
>
> Dick Fischer, Genesis Proclaimed Association
>
> Finding Harmony in Bible, Science, and History
>
> www.genesisproclaimed.org
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu [mailto:asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu] On
Behalf Of Johan Jammart
> Sent: Friday, February 09, 2007 5:41 AM
> To: asa@calvin.edu
> Subject: [asa] Improbability of Homo Sapiens?
>
>
>
>
> Quote
>
>
>
> In 1986 the consensus among such biologists that the evolutionary path
from primitive Cambrian chordates, e.g. Pikaia, to homo sapiens was a highly
improbable event. For example, the large brains of humans have marked
adaptive disadvantages, requiring as they do an expensive metabolism, a long
gestation period, and a childhood lasting more than 25% of the average total
life span. Other improbable features of humans include:
>
> * Being the only extant bipedal land vertebrate. Combined with an
unusual eye-hand coordination, this permits dextrous manipulations of the
physical environment with the hands;
> * A vocal apparatus far more expressive than that of any other mammal,
enabling speech. Speech makes it possible for humans to interact
cooperatively, to share knowledge, and to acquire a culture;
> * The capability of formulating abstractions to a degree permitting
the invention of mathematics, and the discovery of science and technology.
Keep in mind how recently humans acquired anything like their current
scientific and technological sophistication.
>
>
> Few questions here that are important for my theological reflection (as it
is my domain of interest) as it seem that the evolution to homo sapiens
seems improbable.
>
> What if homo sapiens did not arise from evolution?
>
> 1) Is other form of intelligent life (like human intelligence) improbable
with the evolution?
>
> 2) Is the evolution of humanoids improbable?
>
> 3) How could God knew that evolution would bring creature that will be
able to have relationship with Him? Of course He is omniscient but in His
omniscience He had to choose a process that would bring intelligent life.
>
>
> Blessings,
>
> Johan
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-- 
David W. Opderbeck
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