Re: [asa] Creation Care

At 05:58 AM 1/21/2007, Dawsonzhu@aol.com wrote:

>>@@ You cherry-pick and quote the arrogant
>>"scientists" who attempt to BS the uninitiated
>>into swallowing the lie that "consensus" =
>>"science", and I'll cherry-pick the
>>intellectually honest, humble ones, to quote:
>
>When was arrogance the valid measure of
>truth? A truth teller can be very obnoxious,
>and their words difficult to take, but that is
>why we Christians most learn to listen _for_ the truth.
>What is important is the truth, and I'm still
>waiting on that from you on this subject.

@@@ You seem to know what it is, so how about
you tell me what "the truth" is on "this
subject", and I'll let you know if you have it right. :)

>>"My lifetime study of Earth's climate system
>>has humbled me. I'm convinced that we have
>>greatly underestimated the complexity of this
>>system. The importance of obscure phenomena,
>>ranging from those that control the size of
>>raindrops to those that control the amount of
>>water pouring into the deep sea from the
>>shelves of the Antarctic continent, makes
>>reliable modeling very difficult, if not impossible. "
>
>I don't read "give up".

@@@ Is that said to imply that I do? How
funny. I agree with him that we can use coal to
fuel everything for centuries if we need to:

Broecker sees coal as our near-term energy
future. "We have enough coal to fuel everything
we do for centuries," he says. Gasoline can now
be produced from coal for $40 to $45 a barrel.
The trick comes in making coal kind to the
environment. If we tack on the cost of capturing
and storing the carbon dioxide that coal emits,
its price would rise by 20 to 30 percent,
according to Broecker's rough estimate. We can
handle it." ~ Froma Harrop 24 February, 2006
Seattle Times

It's been in the works for a long time in spite
of the whining of leftist extremist groups:

March 4, 2002 [B*sh's] $2 Billion, 10-Year Clean
Coal Initiative
Underway http://www.fossil.energy.gov/news/techlines/2002/tl_ccpi2002sol.html

> I read that he is trying his best to take in
> __all__ the variables, like a good scientist
> would want to do to be sure he/she has
> considered all the variables in a problem. A
> good scientist is typically aware of the
> difficulties of his/her problem and admits
> those difficulties up front. I sense you manipulating his honesty here.

@@@ What you "see" is what you _want_ to see. I
in no way have misrepresented what he thinks
about the reliability of the GIGO computer models
that are being used by scientists to form what has to be a flawed "consensus".

He is flat-out telling you that climate
scientists have greatly underestimated the
complexity of the earth's climate system and that
it is next to impossible to come up with reliable
models to work with because there are too many
IMPORTANT unknown variables and that complicates
predictions of the consequences of the ongoing
buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Read it again:

"My lifetime study of Earth's climate system has
humbled me. I'm convinced that we have greatly
underestimated the complexity of this system. The
importance of obscure phenomena, ranging from
those that control the size of raindrops to those
that control the amount of water pouring into the
deep sea from the shelves of the Antarctic
continent, makes reliable modeling very
difficult, if not impossible. ... The climate
record kept in ice and in sediment reveals that
since the invention of agriculture some 8000 yr
ago, climate has remained remarkably stable. By
contrast, during the preceding 100,000 yr,
climate underwent frequent, very large, and often
extremely abrupt shifts. Furthermore, these
shifts occurred in lockstep across the globe.
They seem to be telling us that Earth's climate
system has several distinct and quite different
modes of operation and that it can jump from one
of these modes to another in a matter of a decade
or two. So far, we know of only one element of
the climate system which has multiple modes of
operation: the oceans' thermohaline circulation.
...Perhaps the mode shifts revealed in the
climate record were initiated in the sea.

This discovery complicates predictions of the
consequences of the ongoing buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

....cold water is fed in from the thermoclines to
the North and South Pacific. The now famous El
Niño cycle involves a turning on and off of this
upwelling. This cycle has a strong impact on
today's global climate. So I think that somehow
the change in the vigor of upper-ocean
circulation must have altered the strength of
upwelling into the equatorial region and, in
turn, the delivery of water vapor into the
atmosphere. .... In fact, the models are
powerless to produce the large global changes
that the paleorecords prove to have taken place.
Why water vapor?, you might ask.

The answer is that water vapor is the
atmosphere's most powerful greenhouse gas. If you
wanted to cool the planet by 5°C and could
magically alter the water-vapor content of the
atmosphere, a 30% decrease would do the job. In
fact, the major debate among atmospheric
scientists regarding the magnitude of the coming
greenhouse warming hinges on what's referred to
as the water-vapor feedback. If the water vapor
in the atmosphere were to remain exactly the same
as it is now, then a doubling of CO2 would heat
the planet only about 1.2°C. ...So the question
naturally arises, What is the probability that
through adding CO2 we will cause the climate
system to jump to one of its alternate modes of
operation? ...we can't yet reproduce any of these
jumps in computer simulations, we don't really
know how many modes of operations Earth has...Our
climate system has proven that it can do very
strange things. Since we've only recently become
aware of this capability, there's nothing
concrete that we can say about the implications.
This discovery certainly gives us even more
reason to be prudent about what we do, though.
..We must think all this through. .." ~ Wallace
S. Broecker 05/97 http://www.geosociety.org/pubs/gsatoday/gsat9705.htm

~ Janice

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Received on Mon Jan 22 02:06:05 2007