Re: [asa] A parable of three investors

*But his strategy MATCHED reality.*

Well what is it? Are markets fundamentally unpredictable or not? Are you a
Keynsian or a Chicago School guy? If markets are fundamentally
unpredictable, his strategy didn't match reality -- he just got lucky. If
markets are at least somewhat predictable, that is only because there are
pre-established legal rules that make them so, such as rules that require
publicly traded companies to make specific disclosures to prospective
investors. Those pre-established rules play the role of hermeneutics when
you try to apply the parable to Bible interpretation. Thus, the parable
begs the question.

On 10/29/06, Glenn Morton <glennmorton@entouch.net> wrote:
>
>
>
> But his strategy MATCHED reality. Is this list the refuge for people who
> do not want reality in their lives? And while the market can be irrational,
> supply and demand figures are not. Boy, for a parable you guys sure want
> them to be true, unless they are in Genesis then we don't want any of it to
> have a factual basis.
>
> David Siemans wrote--taken a hyperliteralistic view of John Maynard Keynes
> words, which were:
>
> "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir? "
>
> >I've got a problem, for facts don't change. The expression of a fact may
> change, if only that we put it in English and others
> >may state it in other languages. What people think are facts are
> continuously changing, however. There is a problem of
> >misunderstanding in that facts are not usually expressed completely. Thus
> an individual's statements "I'm overdrawn" and "I
> >have a large balance" are contradictory of the same account the same day,
> but not of different accounts or different days.
>
> I dont see the point of this other than to pick at nits. You just
> illustrated facts changing. Today the guy has money, tomorrow he
> doesn't. Right now Russia provides natural gas to Europe. In the future,
> that may not be possible. The facts change. What is now, is not tomorrow.
> Today we have plenty of oil. That is a fact. (although just barely).
> Tomorrow that fact will no longer be a fact. In economics natural law
> doesn't apply. For you to try to treat economics as if it is physics or
> biology surprises me.
>
> And I would point out, following a more Wittgensteinian approach, 'facts
> change' is a euphemism for PERCEPTION of the facts. When one perceives that
> his former view is wrong, the correct thing to do is to change the mind. Do
> you have an issue with that? This is why I think you are stretching it way
> beyond the breaking point to pick at this particular nit.
>
> I sure hope this email appears on the list.today rather than a week from
> now
>
>
> glenn
> They're Here: The Pathway Papers
> Foundation, Fall, and Flood
> Adam, Apes and Anthropology
>
> http://home.entouch.net/dmd/dmd.htm
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> *From:* asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu [mailto:asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu] *On
> Behalf Of *David Opderbeck
> *Sent:* Sunday, October 29, 2006 8:07 AM
> *To:* Glenn Morton
> *Cc:* ASA
> *Subject:* Re: [asa] A parable of three investors
>
> *The market, my friend is irrational and unpredictable.*
>
> Hmmm... If this is true the whole parable falls apart. We can't say the
> investor who followed the evidence was wise. He was just lucky.
>
>
>
>

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Received on Sun Oct 29 17:11:57 2006