RE: [asa] A parable of three investors

 
 
But his strategy MATCHED reality. Is this list the refuge for people who do
not want reality in their lives? And while the market can be irrational,
supply and demand figures are not. Boy, for a parable you guys sure want
them to be true, unless they are in Genesis then we don't want any of it to
have a factual basis.
 
David Siemans wrote--taken a hyperliteralistic view of John Maynard Keynes
words, which were:
 
"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir? "
 
>I've got a problem, for facts don't change. The expression of a fact may
change, if only that we put it in English and others
>may state it in other languages. What people think are facts are
continuously changing, however. There is a problem of
>misunderstanding in that facts are not usually expressed completely. Thus
an individual's statements "I'm overdrawn" and "I
>have a large balance" are contradictory of the same account the same day,
but not of different accounts or different days.
 
I dont see the point of this other than to pick at nits. You just
illustrated facts changing. Today the guy has money, tomorrow he doesn't.
Right now Russia provides natural gas to Europe. In the future, that may not
be possible. The facts change. What is now, is not tomorrow. Today we have
plenty of oil. That is a fact. (although just barely). Tomorrow that fact
will no longer be a fact. In economics natural law doesn't apply. For you
to try to treat economics as if it is physics or biology surprises me.
 
And I would point out, following a more Wittgensteinian approach, 'facts
change' is a euphemism for PERCEPTION of the facts. When one perceives that
his former view is wrong, the correct thing to do is to change the mind. Do
you have an issue with that? This is why I think you are stretching it way
beyond the breaking point to pick at this particular nit.
 
I sure hope this email appears on the list.today rather than a week from now
 

glenn
They're Here: The Pathway Papers
Foundation, Fall, and Flood
Adam, Apes and Anthropology

http://home.entouch.net/dmd/dmd.htm
  

-----Original Message-----
From: asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu [mailto:asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu] On
Behalf Of David Opderbeck
Sent: Sunday, October 29, 2006 8:07 AM
To: Glenn Morton
Cc: ASA
Subject: Re: [asa] A parable of three investors

The market, my friend is irrational and unpredictable.

Hmmm... If this is true the whole parable falls apart. We can't say the
investor who followed the evidence was wise. He was just lucky.

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Received on Sun Oct 29 14:49:53 2006