Re: Small probabilities

Pim,

My comments appear as a postscript to what you've written.

----- Original Message -----
From: "Pim van Meurs" <pimvanmeurs@yahoo.com>
To: "Vernon Jenkins" <vernon.jenkins@virgin.net>
Cc: "Iain Strachan" <igd.strachan@gmail.com>; "D. F. Siemens, Jr." <dfsiemensjr@juno.com>; <jarmstro@qwest.net>; <asa@calvin.edu>; <randyisaac@adelphia.net>
Sent: Monday, January 16, 2006 4:03 AM
Subject: Re: Small probabilities

> Vernon Jenkins wrote:
>
>> Pim,
>>
>> You wrote:
>>
>> (1) (14.01.06) So let's go back to Vernon's patterns. How likely or
>> unlikely is it to find similar patterns in any given book? Remember
>> the bible codes? Specified yes, complex? Well only until one realizes
>> how one may find 'matches' almost anywhere. And let's assume that we
>> accept these patterns as found by Vernon, it does not help us decide
>> who or what 'designed' them and how this withstood ages of
>> transcription and translation.
>>
>> (2) (15.01.06) I argue that patterns can be found in almost anything
>> if one searches long enough. The Bible Codes seem to make for an
>> excellent example. In other words, while with Chess we understand the
>> rules and limitations of the game, with Vernon's patterns, we may very
>> well be looking at patterns derived after the fact, or in Dembski's
>> words, patterns where the bulls eye is painted afterwards around the
>> arrows.
>> My initial response:
>>
>> Your reference to ELS (Equidistant Letter Sequences) - the basis of
>> Bible Code research - is hardly relevant to our discussion since my
>> findings are based on a completely different principle, viz the fair
>> reading of Hebrew and Greek words as numbers.
>
> Same comments apply. Bible codes were claimed to be statistically
> significant until it was shown that such codes show up in almost any
> text. Using 'fair reading' and Hebrew and Greek as Numbers shows a
> typical subjective interpretation.
>
>> Again, with respect, your claim that "one may find 'matches' almost
>> anywhere" suggests that you haven't fully grasped the nature of the
>> problem posed by these numerical geometries, and their coordination.
>>
>
> So you claim. But that hardly strengthens YOUR case.
>
>> Way back in 2001 I had occasion to assist an ASA member who proposed
>> writing a computer program to test whether similar structures might be
>> found in other texts. Hence the protocol which you may find at
>> http://homepage.virgin.net/vernon.jenkins/protodd.htm. The project was
>> never completed.
>>
>
> So have you done this essential project or are you just making these
> assertions without determining their statistical relevances?
>

With respect, if you disagree with my assertions, it is _you_ who must provide the effective rebuttal. Having said "I argue that patterns can be found in almost anything if one searches long enough", perhaps you already have an instance in mind - just one would suffice.

The necessary guidelines for the programming of an analytical package to assess the strength of my claims have been available since 2001; for reasons unknown - TG declined to use them, and so was unable to fulfil his side of the bargain. Are you prepared to step into the breach? If so, no one would be more delighted than myself (for I do hate unfinished business).

However, a kindly word of advice: before you begin to consider my offer you would find it of great benefit to _fully acquaint yourself with_ the phenomena you would be seeking to emulate (for I am still not convinced that you have the full measure of the problem). Also, an appreciation of the reality of Hebrew alphabetic numeration wouldn't come amiss.

Vernon
www.otherbiblecode.com
Received on Mon Jan 16 18:24:55 2006