Re: Small probabilities

Vernon Jenkins wrote:

> Pim,
>
> You wrote:
>
> (1) (14.01.06) So let's go back to Vernon's patterns. How likely or
> unlikely is it to find similar patterns in any given book? Remember
> the bible codes? Specified yes, complex? Well only until one realizes
> how one may find 'matches' almost anywhere. And let's assume that we
> accept these patterns as found by Vernon, it does not help us decide
> who or what 'designed' them and how this withstood ages of
> transcription and translation.
>
> (2) (15.01.06) I argue that patterns can be found in almost anything
> if one searches long enough. The Bible Codes seem to make for an
> excellent example. In other words, while with Chess we understand the
> rules and limitations of the game, with Vernon's patterns, we may very
> well be looking at patterns derived after the fact, or in Dembski's
> words, patterns where the bulls eye is painted afterwards around the
> arrows.
> My initial response:
>
> Your reference to ELS (Equidistant Letter Sequences) - the basis of
> Bible Code research - is hardly relevant to our discussion since my
> findings are based on a completely different principle, viz the fair
> reading of Hebrew and Greek words as numbers.

Same comments apply. Bible codes were claimed to be statistically
significant until it was shown that such codes show up in almost any
text. Using 'fair reading' and Hebrew and Greek as Numbers shows a
typical subjective interpretation.

> Again, with respect, your claim that "one may find 'matches' almost
> anywhere" suggests that you haven't fully grasped the nature of the
> problem posed by these numerical geometries, and their coordination.
>

So you claim. But that hardly strengthens YOUR case.

> Way back in 2001 I had occasion to assist an ASA member who proposed
> writing a computer program to test whether similar structures might be
> found in other texts. Hence the protocol which you may find at
> http://homepage.virgin.net/vernon.jenkins/protodd.htm. The project was
> never completed.
>

So have you done this essential project or are you just making these
assertions without determining their statistical relevances?
Received on Sun Jan 15 23:04:56 2006