Re: the hydrogen economy

From: Iain Strachan (iain.strachan.asa@ntlworld.com)
Date: Mon Jul 21 2003 - 13:48:18 EDT

  • Next message: Iain Strachan: "Fw: the hydrogen economy"

    Subject: Re: the hydrogen economy

    > This is not the only program, is it?
    >
    > Jay
    >
    As far as I'm aware it's the only one that's near to getting a workable
    system (ITER -> DEMO). Laser fusion is an even more costly enterprise. I
    think most people in the field would say that Tokamaks are the way forward -
    it's just a question of the international political will to make it happen.

    Iain.

    > ----- Original Message -----
    > From: "Iain Strachan" <iain.strachan.asa@ntlworld.com>
    > To: "Jay Willingham" <jaywillingham@cfl.rr.com>
    > Cc: "ASA list" <asa@calvin.edu>
    > Sent: Monday, July 21, 2003 1:04 PM
    > Subject: Re: the hydrogen economy
    >
    >
    > > Actually you may be right about the starving of funds ... and
    > unfortunately
    > > the following extract from the UKAEA fusion web-site places the blame
    for
    > > that fairly and squarely on the US ...
    > >
    > > (find the whole article at http://www.fusion.org.uk/ and follow the
    link
    > "A
    > > giant leap for fusion" under "Features")
    > >
    > > QUOTE:
    > > In the next few months the European Union and Japan must decide whether
    to
    > > back the next stage in fusion research. The Joint European Torus (JET),
    > the
    > > largest fusion reactor yet built, was completed in 1983 and fusion
    > > scientists have made great progress since it began operating. To make
    the
    > > next step, a bigger reactor is necessary: one that can emit more energy
    > than
    > > it consumes and can produce a self-sustaining reaction. If these
    > objectives
    > > were achieved, the experimental basis of fusion power would be
    > established.
    > > Fusion would no longer be a holy grail, it would be a reality.
    > >
    > > Fusion scientists call it 'the next step'. Their work has reached the
    > stage
    > > where they have to make this next step, or the efforts so far committed
    > will
    > > amount to nothing. In 1998 an international working group of fusion
    > > scientists completed the design. They called it the International
    Tokamak
    > > Experimental Reactor (ITER) and it was designed to meet the criteria
    which
    > > would prove that fusion can produce useful energy. But at $6 billion, it
    > > frightened politicians. It frightened US politicians so much they pulled
    > out
    > > of the project, despite the fact that it was Reagan and Gorbachev who
    > first
    > > backed work on the reactor's development.
    > >
    > > As a result of the US exit, the costs had to be reduced. Japan, Russia
    and
    > > Europe remain committed, but the reactor's budget is limited to $3
    > billion.
    > > Fusion scientists went back to their labs and developed the ITER -
    Fusion
    > > Energy Advanced Tokomak (ITER- FEAT), the outline design of which has
    just
    > > received approval from the ITER Technical Advisory Committee (TAC). The
    > > costs of the new design are down to 56% of the original ITER, and the
    TAC
    > is
    > > confident that engineering advances can reduce the cost further, so that
    > the
    > > target of 50% of ITER's original cost will be met. The new design will
    > still
    > > achieve the targets of a self-sustaining reaction and a net energy gain,
    > but
    > > the ambition is reined in. It will probably not reach the kind of energy
    > > gains that would be necessary in a power plant, but it will establish
    the
    > > experimental basis to show that this is possible.
    > >
    > > ENDQUOTE.
    > >
    > > If Glenn is right about oil supplies, then it appears to me that we now
    > > won't get fusion energy going in time. With the astronomical costs
    > > involved, I would not have thought that Fusion power will be getting
    > rolled
    > > out on a large scale till late in the 21st century. We might get the
    > first
    > > reactor, if all goes well, by 2050.
    > >
    > > But it's still not clear to me that more money at this stage will make
    > much
    > > difference - it looks as if the damage has already been done.
    > >
    > > ------------------------------------------------------------------
    > > Iain .G.D. Strachan
    > >
    > > There are 10 types of people in the world ...
    > > those who understand binary and those who don't.
    > >
    > > --------------------------------------------------------------------
    > > ----- Original Message -----
    > > From: "Jay Willingham" <jaywillingham@cfl.rr.com>
    > > To: "Iain Strachan" <iain.strachan.asa@ntlworld.com>; "ASA"
    > <asa@calvin.edu>
    > > Sent: Sunday, July 20, 2003 10:50 PM
    > > Subject: Re: the hydrogen economy
    > >
    > >
    > > > I am not so sure.
    > > >
    > > > The magnetic field experiments and the laser experiments are the only
    > ones
    > > > being worked to any degree, and those are really starved for funding.
    > > >
    > > > The Manhattan project comes to mind when someone says more money will
    > not
    > > > speed up the various experiments.
    > > >
    > > > Jay Willingham
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > ----- Original Message -----
    > > > From: "Iain Strachan" <iain.strachan.asa@ntlworld.com>
    > > > To: "Jay Willingham" <jaywillingham@cfl.rr.com>; "Glenn Morton"
    > > > <glennmorton@entouch.net>; "ASA" <asa@calvin.edu>
    > > > Sent: Sunday, July 20, 2003 11:34 AM
    > > > Subject: Re: the hydrogen economy
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > > > Money seems to be the main weak factor in that equation.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > Jay
    > > > >
    > > > > I don't think that money is the real issue here. I recently spoke
    to
    > a
    > > > > physicist who works on JET (the large fusion experiment close to
    where
    > I
    > > > > live) and he gave the timescale as 50 years; 12.5 years to build the
    > > next
    > > > > experiment (ITER) and 12.5 years to run it, during which they get
    the
    > > > plasma
    > > > > parameters right for fusion and then a similar timescale for the
    > > proposed
    > > > > demonstration fusion reactor (DEMO); 12.5 years to build and 12.5 to
    > > run.
    > > > > He was not of the opinion that the timescale could be speeded up by
    > > > throwing
    > > > > yet more money at it. These experiments are major undertakings.
    For
    > > > > example the magnetic induction coils are so vast that they could not
    > be
    > > > > transported for long distances. Therefore before you can build your
    > > > fusion
    > > > > reactor you have to build an entire manufacturing plant on site.
    > > > >
    > > > > However, we must stop the sliding goalpost and not allow things to
    > drag
    > > > on.
    > > > >
    > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------
    > > > > Iain .G.D. Strachan
    > > > >
    > > > > There are 10 types of people in the world ...
    > > > > those who understand binary and those who don't.
    > > > >
    > > > > --------------------------------------------------------------------
    > > > > ----- Original Message -----
    > > > > From: "Jay Willingham" <jaywillingham@cfl.rr.com>
    > > > > To: "Glenn Morton" <glennmorton@entouch.net>; "ASA" <asa@calvin.edu>
    > > > > Sent: Sunday, July 20, 2003 3:21 PM
    > > > > Subject: Re: the hydrogen economy
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
    > > > > > From: "Glenn Morton" <glennmorton@entouch.net>
    > > > > > To: "Jay Willingham" <jaywillingham@cfl.rr.com>; "ASA"
    > > <asa@calvin.edu>
    > > > > > Sent: Saturday, July 19, 2003 8:58 PM
    > > > > > Subject: RE: the hydrogen economy
    > > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > >-----Original Message-----
    > > > > > > >From: asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu
    > > > [mailto:asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu]On
    > > > > > > >Behalf Of Jay Willingham
    > > > > > > >Sent: Saturday, July 19, 2003 5:09 PM
    > > > > > > >To: Glenn Morton; ASA
    > > > > > > >Subject: Re: the hydrogen economy
    > > > > > > >
    > > > > > > >
    > > > > > > >Hydrogen strikes me as a junk science/green politician's
    answer.
    > > > > > > >
    > > > > > > >Where are we in the development of fusion as an energy source?
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > Not very far. The only thing constant about fusion energy is
    that
    > > it
    > > > is
    > > > > > > always 50 years away. We really will need to change that
    constant.
    > > > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > >
    >
    >



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