Re: the hydrogen economy

From: Jay Willingham (jaywillingham@cfl.rr.com)
Date: Mon Jul 21 2003 - 13:23:29 EDT

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    This is not the only program, is it?

    Jay

    ----- Original Message -----
    From: "Iain Strachan" <iain.strachan.asa@ntlworld.com>
    To: "Jay Willingham" <jaywillingham@cfl.rr.com>
    Cc: "ASA list" <asa@calvin.edu>
    Sent: Monday, July 21, 2003 1:04 PM
    Subject: Re: the hydrogen economy

    > Actually you may be right about the starving of funds ... and
    unfortunately
    > the following extract from the UKAEA fusion web-site places the blame for
    > that fairly and squarely on the US ...
    >
    > (find the whole article at http://www.fusion.org.uk/ and follow the link
    "A
    > giant leap for fusion" under "Features")
    >
    > QUOTE:
    > In the next few months the European Union and Japan must decide whether to
    > back the next stage in fusion research. The Joint European Torus (JET),
    the
    > largest fusion reactor yet built, was completed in 1983 and fusion
    > scientists have made great progress since it began operating. To make the
    > next step, a bigger reactor is necessary: one that can emit more energy
    than
    > it consumes and can produce a self-sustaining reaction. If these
    objectives
    > were achieved, the experimental basis of fusion power would be
    established.
    > Fusion would no longer be a holy grail, it would be a reality.
    >
    > Fusion scientists call it 'the next step'. Their work has reached the
    stage
    > where they have to make this next step, or the efforts so far committed
    will
    > amount to nothing. In 1998 an international working group of fusion
    > scientists completed the design. They called it the International Tokamak
    > Experimental Reactor (ITER) and it was designed to meet the criteria which
    > would prove that fusion can produce useful energy. But at $6 billion, it
    > frightened politicians. It frightened US politicians so much they pulled
    out
    > of the project, despite the fact that it was Reagan and Gorbachev who
    first
    > backed work on the reactor's development.
    >
    > As a result of the US exit, the costs had to be reduced. Japan, Russia and
    > Europe remain committed, but the reactor's budget is limited to $3
    billion.
    > Fusion scientists went back to their labs and developed the ITER - Fusion
    > Energy Advanced Tokomak (ITER- FEAT), the outline design of which has just
    > received approval from the ITER Technical Advisory Committee (TAC). The
    > costs of the new design are down to 56% of the original ITER, and the TAC
    is
    > confident that engineering advances can reduce the cost further, so that
    the
    > target of 50% of ITER's original cost will be met. The new design will
    still
    > achieve the targets of a self-sustaining reaction and a net energy gain,
    but
    > the ambition is reined in. It will probably not reach the kind of energy
    > gains that would be necessary in a power plant, but it will establish the
    > experimental basis to show that this is possible.
    >
    > ENDQUOTE.
    >
    > If Glenn is right about oil supplies, then it appears to me that we now
    > won't get fusion energy going in time. With the astronomical costs
    > involved, I would not have thought that Fusion power will be getting
    rolled
    > out on a large scale till late in the 21st century. We might get the
    first
    > reactor, if all goes well, by 2050.
    >
    > But it's still not clear to me that more money at this stage will make
    much
    > difference - it looks as if the damage has already been done.
    >
    > ------------------------------------------------------------------
    > Iain .G.D. Strachan
    >
    > There are 10 types of people in the world ...
    > those who understand binary and those who don't.
    >
    > --------------------------------------------------------------------
    > ----- Original Message -----
    > From: "Jay Willingham" <jaywillingham@cfl.rr.com>
    > To: "Iain Strachan" <iain.strachan.asa@ntlworld.com>; "ASA"
    <asa@calvin.edu>
    > Sent: Sunday, July 20, 2003 10:50 PM
    > Subject: Re: the hydrogen economy
    >
    >
    > > I am not so sure.
    > >
    > > The magnetic field experiments and the laser experiments are the only
    ones
    > > being worked to any degree, and those are really starved for funding.
    > >
    > > The Manhattan project comes to mind when someone says more money will
    not
    > > speed up the various experiments.
    > >
    > > Jay Willingham
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > ----- Original Message -----
    > > From: "Iain Strachan" <iain.strachan.asa@ntlworld.com>
    > > To: "Jay Willingham" <jaywillingham@cfl.rr.com>; "Glenn Morton"
    > > <glennmorton@entouch.net>; "ASA" <asa@calvin.edu>
    > > Sent: Sunday, July 20, 2003 11:34 AM
    > > Subject: Re: the hydrogen economy
    > >
    > >
    > > > > Money seems to be the main weak factor in that equation.
    > > > >
    > > > > Jay
    > > >
    > > > I don't think that money is the real issue here. I recently spoke to
    a
    > > > physicist who works on JET (the large fusion experiment close to where
    I
    > > > live) and he gave the timescale as 50 years; 12.5 years to build the
    > next
    > > > experiment (ITER) and 12.5 years to run it, during which they get the
    > > plasma
    > > > parameters right for fusion and then a similar timescale for the
    > proposed
    > > > demonstration fusion reactor (DEMO); 12.5 years to build and 12.5 to
    > run.
    > > > He was not of the opinion that the timescale could be speeded up by
    > > throwing
    > > > yet more money at it. These experiments are major undertakings. For
    > > > example the magnetic induction coils are so vast that they could not
    be
    > > > transported for long distances. Therefore before you can build your
    > > fusion
    > > > reactor you have to build an entire manufacturing plant on site.
    > > >
    > > > However, we must stop the sliding goalpost and not allow things to
    drag
    > > on.
    > > >
    > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------
    > > > Iain .G.D. Strachan
    > > >
    > > > There are 10 types of people in the world ...
    > > > those who understand binary and those who don't.
    > > >
    > > > --------------------------------------------------------------------
    > > > ----- Original Message -----
    > > > From: "Jay Willingham" <jaywillingham@cfl.rr.com>
    > > > To: "Glenn Morton" <glennmorton@entouch.net>; "ASA" <asa@calvin.edu>
    > > > Sent: Sunday, July 20, 2003 3:21 PM
    > > > Subject: Re: the hydrogen economy
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > ----- Original Message -----
    > > > > From: "Glenn Morton" <glennmorton@entouch.net>
    > > > > To: "Jay Willingham" <jaywillingham@cfl.rr.com>; "ASA"
    > <asa@calvin.edu>
    > > > > Sent: Saturday, July 19, 2003 8:58 PM
    > > > > Subject: RE: the hydrogen economy
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > > > >-----Original Message-----
    > > > > > >From: asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu
    > > [mailto:asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu]On
    > > > > > >Behalf Of Jay Willingham
    > > > > > >Sent: Saturday, July 19, 2003 5:09 PM
    > > > > > >To: Glenn Morton; ASA
    > > > > > >Subject: Re: the hydrogen economy
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > >Hydrogen strikes me as a junk science/green politician's answer.
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > >Where are we in the development of fusion as an energy source?
    > > > > >
    > > > > > Not very far. The only thing constant about fusion energy is that
    > it
    > > is
    > > > > > always 50 years away. We really will need to change that constant.
    > > > > >
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > >
    > >
    >



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