Glenn,
I agree with most of what you have written except your fourth point,
"4. we are going to have to get over the notion that we can tax people into
submission and force them by such means not to drive their vehicles. Given
that the UK paysaround $4.00 per gallon tax on gasoline, it doesn't really
stop people from driving. People simply have to get to work."
The reason people drive to work is that they have been able to do so in the
past. Thos who could not afford to drive to work made sure that they either
1) lived close enough to walk or 2) lived close enough to public
transportation routes. Our kids are prime examples: when they left home and
went to college or to work, they 1) lived on campus, 2) close enough to walk
to campus, 3) close enough to the bus stop and in a strategic location to
get to campus and their part time jobs as efficiently as possible. Once
they can afford it, they may buy cars and do "the North American thing" by
moving to areas of the cities where buses don't run as frequently, unless
they see the writing on the wall and choose to do their commuting by public
transit.
As gasoline prices increase, you'll see a gradual reversal of the "exodus to
the suburbs." It may take a while, because people tend to adhere to their
current lifestyle at a appreciable cost, but it will happen. But even if
they don't, the incoming work force will make a decision on where to live on
the basis of the current and projected gasoline costs and that won't likely
be a 30 km commute in a gas guzzling car!
There may be severe dislocations when the price of gas goes up too rapidly:
some may have to sell their house at a fire sale price and move into the
areas of the cities that they worked hard to move out of (sorry to end this
sentence with two prepositions). Others may have to give up good jobs too
far away for not-so-good jobs closer to home.
Chuck Vandergraaf
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