Re: random genetic drift vs natural selection (was Scopes in reverse)

From: Stephen E. Jones (sejones@iinet.net.au)
Date: Sat Aug 05 2000 - 20:40:59 EDT

  • Next message: billwald@juno.com: "Re: Just a Theory"

    Reflectorites

    On Wed, 2 Aug 2000 19:29:28 -0700, billwald@juno.com wrote:

    [...]

    >SJ>We divided into groups of four and each group used 60 green and yellow
    >>beads in containers to represent alleles in individuals in a population.
    >We drew the breads out singly at random to simulate genetic drift while
    >>reducing the population by 5 pairs each generation, i.e. 55, 50, 45
    >pairs, and recorded the gene frequency and phenotypic effect.

    BW>Don't understand the experiment. If you removed beads randomly the ratio
    >of green to yellow should remain constant if enough trials were made.

    Sorry, but my explanation was necessarily abbreviated. We followed the
    genotype-phenotype/dominant-recessive rules of Mendelian genetics.

    Besides, it does not follow that random removal of beads should remain
    constant. Over a very long period with a large enough population it would.
    But with a small population it wouldn't necessarily.

    BW>maybe 120 is to small a starting population.

    The population was 60. The alleles were 120.

    It wouldn't matter what it *started* as. The question was what happens when
    a population got smaller. And populations do get down to 60 and in fact
    down to 1, when they go extinct.

    In fact, small populations are thought now to be how evolutionary change
    happens, because favourable genes get diluted in large populations:

            "All major theories of speciation maintain that splitting takes place
            rapidly in very small populations. The theory of geographic, or
            allopatric, speciation is preferred by most evolutionists for most
            situations (allopatric means "in another place"). A new species can
            arise when a small segment of the ancestral population is isolated at
            the periphery of the ancestral range. Large, stable central
            populations exert a strong homogenizing influence. New and
            favorable mutations are diluted by the sheer bulk of the population
            through which they must spread. They may build slowly in
            frequency, but changing environments usually cancel their selective
            value long before they reach fixation. Thus, phyletic transformation
            in large populations should be very rare as the fossil record
            proclaims. But small, peripherally isolated groups are cut off from
            their parental stock. They live as tiny populations in geographic
            corners of the ancestral range. Selective pressures are usually
            intense because peripheries mark the edge of ecological tolerance
            for ancestral forms. Favorable variations spread quickly. Small,
            peripheral isolates are a laboratory of evolutionary change." (Gould
            S.J., "The Episodic Nature of Evolutionary Change," in "The
            Panda's Thumb," 1990, pp.152-153)

    But the take-home point is that when populations get smaller, random
    genetic drift becomes the dominant factor. Natural selection is not as
    strong a force as we intuitively think.

    When you think of it. Even with the strong selection of artificial selection
    (i.e. selective breeding), it is hard to obtain the desired results. That is why
    they are spending so much effort on animal cloning. It is only by cloning a
    known genotype that they can guarantee the phonotype will be exactly
    what they want.

    [...]

    Steve

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------
    "It was a Russian biochemist, A. I. Oparin, who in 1936 first suggested
    how inert chemicals might link together into an organic chain. Although it
    was impossible to create life from non-life in our present oxygen- heavy
    environment, he said (oxygen literally eats up any primitive organic
    chemical such as an amino acid), this might not have been the case in
    conditions billions of years ago. He suggested that there was a 'reducing'
    atmosphere - free of oxygen, and consisting of such gases as methane,
    ammonia, water and hydrogen. All experiments, including Stanley Miller's,
    have been based on this hypothesis. Without oxygen, there is no ozone
    canopy to protect Earth from the sun's ultraviolet rays. Nowadays, as
    established by NASA's early space probes, this canopy blankets us between
    fifteen and thirty miles above Earth's surface, effectively shielding us from
    certain death. So with oxygen in the air, the first amino acid would never
    have got started; without oxygen, it would have been wiped out by cosmic
    rays. Imaginative and elaborate solutions have been written to this
    conundrum. Perhaps the amino acid was formed at the edge of a volcano,
    and then sank into a lake where it dropped the few metres below the
    surface necessary to protect it from radiation; perhaps the Earth's waters
    were covered by a layer of tar-like chemicals which stopped ultraviolet
    light; perhaps the amino acid was protectively dehydrated or 'frozen' in
    some way on dry rock or clay, waiting for an improvement in the
    atmosphere. For every suggestion, there is a seemingly insuperable
    objection: beneath the surface of the water there would not be enough
    energy to activate further chemical reactions; water in any case inhibits the
    growth of more complex molecules; unlike conditions in laboratory
    experiments, the amino acids and their constituents could not be kept pure
    and isolated. In other words, the theoretical chances of getting through
    even this first and relatively easy stage in the evolution of life are
    forbidding." (Hitching F., "The Neck of the Giraffe: Or Where Darwin
    Went Wrong", Pan: London, 1982, p.64) .
    Stephen E. Jones | sejones@iinet.net.au | http://www.iinet.net.au/~sejones
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