Re: Probability and apologetics

GRMorton@aol.com
Thu, 31 Aug 1995 20:36:33 -0400

Stephen Wrote:
>>I have no brief for YEC or TE, but perhaps Glenn can elaborate on
where PC is "in opposition to certain biomolecular data (MHC and
other allelic diversity) and anthropological data (the nature of
fossil man)"? <<

Stephen, this is what was discussed a couple of weeks ago. If you start
humanity with 2 people, 30,000 years ago, as I believe you suggested once,
every single location in the human genome would have at most 4 alleles.
Every other allele would have to have arisen since that time. Depending
upon when you might believe the flood occurred, and whether or not it was
anthropologically universal, you reset the number of alleles at 10. In
order to believe in a recent origin for mankind, you must believe that the
rates of mutation are far faster than even the evolutionists believe.

Rather than re-hash this again, check the WWW page for the reflector archive
for the dates august 13 through the 16th. If you can't do that, I will be
glad to send you the relevant posts privately.

Stephen wrote:
>>PC does not deny any scientific "data", but it might deny
certain *interpretations* of that data.<<

There is very little "interpretation" here on this data. Science knows how
many alleles two individuals can carry, it is 4. We know at least some of
the alleles at some of the genetic positions. The max I have found is 59 in
one of the MHC alleles.

If you take the number of genetic substitutions needed to convert the alleles
back to the coalescence point, (where the alleles would be the same, at
present rates of mutation it runs into several million years. Klein, Takahata
and Ayala write,

"An example of a transspecies polymorphism is furnished by two human alleles
at the DRB1 locus, which differ more from each other than the corresponding
alleles in the chimpanzee. The relations can be measured precisely in terms
of genetic distances, that is, the number of nucleotide substitutions divided
by the number of sites compared. A family tree of the four alleles can be
constructed in which these distances are proportional to the elngth of the
branches, and genes with the shortest distances between them are neighbors.
"The tree indicates that the two human alleles diverged from a common
ancestral gene before the ancestors of the human and chimpanzee species
separated from each other. Klein, Figueroa and Colm O'hUlgin of the Max
Planck Institute in Tubingen obtained evidence that certain other human MHC
alleles diverged before the separation of prosimian and anthropoid primates
more than 65 million years ago. During this period, there must have been
many speciation events, and the MHC polymorphism must have passed on through
all of them." Jan Klein, Naoyuki Takahata and Francisco J. Ayala, "MHC
Polymorphism and Human Origins." Scientific American, Dec. 1993, p. 80.

This is a problem for all views, including mine!.

glenn