RE: Energy article from BBC news

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Al Koop [mailto:koopa@gvsu.edu]
> Sent: Thursday, July 29, 2004 11:28 AM
> To: glennmorton@entouch.net
> Cc: asa@calvin.edu
> Subject: RE: Energy article from BBC news

I thought to respond to this:
> The rebuttal
>
> Aramco's response: Current oil output can reach 10.5 million
> barrels a day, proven reserves are 260 billion barrels;
> there are 200 billion more barrels of "undiscovered" oil
> underground in such unexploited zones as the deepwater Red
> Sea, the Iraq border and the bottom section of the Empty
> Quarter; finding and development coasts are "incidental" (50
> cents per barrel), and the kingdom can safely produce 10
> million to 15 million barrels a day for the next 50 years.

It isn't hard to put the lie to the Saudi claims. The 260 billion
barrels in the oil industry is considered as total reserves, not
remaining reserves. Since 1989 they have had an announced 260 billion
barrel or so reserves. They have pumped 47 billion in that time but
their reserves have not gone down. Thus this is ultimate recoverable
oil.

Year production reserves
1980 3,748,550,000 168,030,000,000
1981 3,743,440,000 167,850,000,000
1982 2,540,765,000 165,484,000,000
1983 1,807,115,000 168,848,000,000
1984 1,654,910,000 171,710,000,000
1985 1,314,365,000 171,490,000,000
1986 1,900,920,000 169,744,000,000
1987 1,678,635,000 169,585,000,000
1988 2,087,800,000 254,989,000,000
1989 2,056,775,000 260,050,000,000
1990 2,593,325,000 260,342,000,000
1991 3,219,300,000 260,936,000,000
1992 3,320,770,000 261,203,000,000
1993 3,271,130,000 261,355,000,000
1994 3,293,395,000 261,374,000,000
1995 3,296,680,000 261,450,000,000
1996 3,350,700,000 261,444,000,000
1997 3,416,765,000 261,541,000,000
1998 3,420,050,000 261,542,000,000
1999 3,173,310,000 262,784,000,000
2000 3,393,405,000 262,766,000,000
2001 3,282,080,000 262,697,000,000
2002 3,162,360,000 262,790,000,000
2003 3,583,205,000 262,730,000,000

If their ultimate recoverable reserves is 262 billion barrels, then one
can easily figure that the Saudis will have produced half of their
reserves by 2010. At the halfway point production rate begins to drop.
That point will come at the end of this decade.

I have met Matt Simmons and he is an incredible person. And he is
right.
Received on Thu Jul 29 20:24:19 2004