From: Don Winterstein (dfwinterstein@msn.com)
Date: Fri Nov 14 2003 - 03:47:44 EST
But this can't tell the whole story. How about the net population declines in western Europe and Japan--the US also, I think, if we were to stop immigration? China also has forcibly slowed if not stopped its growth. Rampant growth seems confined to poor nations without constraints. Prime example: India. But even there concepts of birth control are taking root.
The fact that population can stop growing and even decline gives me hope.
Don
----- Original Message -----
From: John W Burgeson
To: glennmorton@entouch.net
Cc: asa@calvin.edu
Sent: Wednesday, November 12, 2003 8:03 AM
Subject: Re: Declining water and oil
Glenn wrote, in part: "The big problem is the population. The world
simply can't continue to support more and more of us, but I doubt that
sex and babies are going to go out of style anytime soon."
Glen also cited the reindeer example, which is a good one.
On my website I have a spreadsheet which illustrates mathematically the
problem. The math is described on page 35 of REASON AND REALITY by John
Polkinghorne (1991) and describes how species population sizes vary in
successive years. Next year's population (X[n+1]} depends on:
(1) how many of the species there are to breed this year (X[n])
(2) on the attenuating effect of limited resources this year (1-X[n]).
You can see this at the page www.burgy.50megs.com/chaos.htm
JB
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