Re: Thomas Bayes and Bayesian statistics

Many thanks for your comments - the link was particularly appreciated.

>From: "Iain Strachan" >Date: Fri, 29 Aug 2003 20:49:53 +0100 > >Steve Bishop: > > > > Hi all, > > > > I have recently noticed how Swinburne and others have been using Bayes > > theory to "prove" Christianity. Using Bayes' theorem [he] maintains that the > > resurrection of Jesus is 97% probable. > >I find this hard to believe.

It's what Swinburne maintains!

"Mr. [sic] Swinburne, a commanding figure with snow-white hair and piercing blue eyes, proceeded to weigh evidence for and against the Resurrection, assigning values to factors like the probability that there is a God, the nature of Jesus' behavior during his lifetime and the quality of witness testimony after his death. Then, while his audience followed along on printed lecture notes, he plugged his numbers into a dense thicket of letters and symbols—using a probability formula known as Bayes's theorem—and did the math. "Given e and k, h is true if and only if c is true," he said. "The probability of h given e and k is .97"

"In plain English, this means that, by Mr. Swinburne's calculations, the probability of the Resurrection comes out to be a whopping 97 percent. " http://www.selfknowledge.org/resources/press/nyt_eakin.htm

 

See also:

http://www.christianitytoday.com/bc/2003/004/17.13.html

a review of Swinburne's Resurrection of God Incarnate (Clarendon Press, Oxford, 2003).

 

Cheers, Steve