Yesterday I went to the GWS (Global Warming Science) site and in order
to verify that I was using the facilities correctly I reproduced your
results more or less since I did not use exactly the same stations you
got.
Next I tried to reproduce what Glenn plotted only using GWS plot
capabilities and got a server error with a stack walkback trace...
Have gotten this a number of times and it does raise concerns about the
programming on the site.
All the following discussion assumes lat/long set as Glenn did, only
included years with 12 months of data and plots the mean of the
unadjusted data.
Not knowing how many stations would crash the plotting logic I tried
the first thirty that came up in the list of stations.
I suggest getting both of these plots up in two browser instances and
comparing the plots. The anomaly plot shows considerable recent
warming compared to the 1890 to 1960 time period. The actual
temperature plot does NOT show that the most recent temperature is
greater than historical figures from say 1890 to 1960. Something is
wrong!
My understanding is that anomaly plots show the difference between the
yearly average and the average of the averages over the years plotted.
IMHO the plotting software is buggy.
Never the less I persevered trying to reproduce Glenn's plots.
Actual Temperature Averages over the first 75 stations
Note that the same kind of problem exists as I showed above with the
anomaly plot.
However, if one only looks at the actual temperature data, only from
1880 on, it does not look that much different than Glens plots at least
eyeballing it where a smoothed curve would go. Averages for near in
years are NOT out of line with historical maximum averages so warming
is not apparent either looking at smoothed data or none smoothed data.
Actual Temperature Averages over the last 72 stations
The actual temperature plot does show warming of about one degree
between the oldest and latest years on the smoothed data plot but not
if one looks at the none smoothed data plot.
The anomaly plot as usual is not useful as it shows a 2 degree
difference between the oldest and latest years on the smoothed line.
How would the plot have looked on GWS if I could have plotted all the
stations on one graph?? Probably it would show a bit of warming but
less than one degree on the smoothed plot and none on the actual plot
compared to historical highs.
I would like to understand the small scale differences between Glenn's
plot and the ones from GWS but I do not think they make any material
difference.
Dave W
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Received on Fri Dec 18 09:37:50 2009
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: Fri Dec 18 2009 - 09:37:51 EST