[asa] Hadley files stolen and published on the internet...

 uncertainty , while still getting the crux of the information across clearly.” UPDATE 10 From: Tom Wigley [...] To: Phil Jones [...] Subject: 1940s Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2009 23:25:38 -0600 Cc: Ben Santer [...] Phil, Here are some speculations on correcting SSTs to partly explain the 1940s warming blip. If you look at the attached plot you will see that theland also shows the 1940s blip (as I’m sure you know). So, if we could reduce the ocean blip by, say, 0.15 degC, then this would be significant for the global mean – but we’d still have to explain the land blip. I’ve chosen 0.15 here deliberately. This still leaves an ocean blip, and i think one needs to have some form of ocean blip to explain the land blip (via either some common forcing, or ocean forcing land, or vice versa, or all of these). When you look at other blips, the land blips are 1.5 to 2 times (roughly) the ocean blips­higher sensitivity plus thermal inertia effects. My 0.15 adjustment leaves things consistent with this, so you can see where I am coming from. Removing ENSO does not affect this. It would be good to remove at least part of the 1940s blip, but we are still left with “why the blip”. Let me go further. If you look at NH vs SH and the aerosol effect (qualitatively or with MAGICC) then with a reduced ocean blip we get continuous warming in the SH, and a cooling in the NH­just as one would expect with mainly NH aerosols. The other interesting thing is (as Foukal et al. note – from MAGICC) that the 1910-40 warming cannot be solar. The Sun can get at most 10% of this with Wang et al solar, less with Foukal solar. So this may well be NADW, as Sarah and I noted in 1987 (and also Schlesinger later). A reduced SST blip in the 1940s makes the 1910-40 warming larger than the SH (which it currently is not)­but not really enough. So ... why was the SH so cold around 1910? Another SST problem? (SH/NH data also attached.) This stuff is in a report I am writing for EPRI, so I’d appreciate any comments you (and Ben) might have. Tom. UPDATE 11 The other paper by MM is just garbage – as you knew. De Freitas again. Pielke is also losing all credibility as well by replying to the mad Finn as well – frequently as I see it. I can’t see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report. K and I will keep them out somehow – even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is ! UPDATE 12 > After asking Anjuli I can confirm that government employees cannot receive funding besides travel reimbursement. So for those of you that are GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES, the only thing that remains to do is to go through the document once again, make sure your work (past and future) is not misrepresented, and then send me a note with an “OK” or your new comments, specifying that you are a government employee (please don’t let me guess it). For those of you that are ACADEMICS WITH 12 MONTHS SALARY all that we can budget is a small amount of consulting fees, up to 2 weeks’ worth. If you belong to this category please respond saying that you are or you are not interested. If you are, then include in the document at the end in the place already arranged for it a statement of work referring to specific tasks as they stand in Section 3 of the narrative, and a bio-sketch (see end of this email for specific instructions). For THOSE OF YOU THAT CAN GET FULL SUPPORT, please say if you want it or > not, and if you do, then do as I requested above: include in the document at the end in the place already rranged for it a statement of work referring to specific tasks as they stand in Section 3 of the narrative, and a bio-sketch (see end of this email for specific instructions).

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Received on Fri Nov 20 10:32:10 2009