Re: [asa] Effect of Solar variability

Hi Bill,

In the meantime, here's realclimate.org's discussion of past papers by these authors (there's actually a reply from one of the authors in the comment section)

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/10/how-not-to-attribute-climate-change/
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/03/solar-variability-statistics-vs-physics-2nd-round/

In Christ,
Christine

"For we walk by faith, not by sight" ~II Corinthians 5:7

Help save the life of a homeless animal--visit www.azrescue.org to find out how.

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--- On Wed, 2/11/09, Christine Smith <christine_mb_smith@yahoo.com> wrote:

> From: Christine Smith <christine_mb_smith@yahoo.com>
> Subject: Re: [asa] Effect of Solar variability
> To: asa@calvin.edu
> Date: Wednesday, February 11, 2009, 12:27 PM
> Hi Bill,
>
> Thanks for posting this. I'm going to do some more
> digging as I want to try and understand the specifics that
> he's talking about better, but two potential red flags
> come to mind just on a surficial read. First, his opening
> statement is:
>
> "The causes of global warming—the increase of
> approximately 0.8±0.1 °C in
> the average global temperature near Earth’s surface since
> 1900...."
>
> Here, he either completely misstated what he wanted to say,
> or he doesn't understand what climate change theory
> fundamentally postulates: the (primary) *cause* of climate
> change is due to increasing levels of greenhouse gases in
> the atmosphere. The temperature record contains important
> observations which bear on the subject, no doubt, but to say
> they are the "cause" (or the postulated cause) is
> inaccurate.
>
> Secondly, I would be wary of anyone who is claiming to
> undermine climate change theory on the basis of an analysis
> of the last 100 years. Although later in the paper, he
> mentions that "we recently showed that it is possible
> to reconstruct a phenomenological solar signature (PSS) of
> climate for the last four centuries.5", even four
> centuries does not constitute or address the whole of AGW
> science. Certainly, a period of 100 years and 400 years is
> enough to say something climatologically, but that he then
> concludes based on this that "We estimate that the Sun
> could account for as much as 69% of the increase in
> Earth’s average temperature,
> depending on the TSI reconstruction used.5" sounds to
> me like a bit of a stretch.
>
> Nevertheless, like I said, I'd like to do some more
> digging on it. Perhaps Rich and others who are more
> acquainted with the details of the topic will have more to
> add here?
>
> In Christ,
> Christine
>
> "For we walk by faith, not by sight" ~II
> Corinthians 5:7
>
> Help save the life of a homeless animal--visit
> www.azrescue.org to find out how.
>
> Recycling a single aluminum can conserves enough energy to
> power your TV for 3 hours--Reduce, Reuse, Recycle! Learn
> more at www.cleanup.org
>
>
> --- On Wed, 2/11/09, William Hamilton
> <willeugenehamilton@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > From: William Hamilton
> <willeugenehamilton@gmail.com>
> > Subject: [asa] Effect of Solar variability
> > To: "Asa@calvin.edu" <asa@calvin.edu>
> > Date: Wednesday, February 11, 2009, 7:24 AM
> > I recently came across the following article:
> >
> >
> http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&ct=res&cd=2&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fel.duke.edu%2F~scafetta%2Fpdf%2Fopinion0308.pdf&ei=ss2SSZ2UEqGbtwex79TXCw&usg=AFQjCNHOURrs__u1Zbazc3NBB7JsCIuyuQ&sig2=YKk1hF0U8FTaDN42uvWtmg
> >
> > In it Bruce J West, (Chief Scientist, Mathematics,
> Army
> > Research Office)
> > claims he has developed models that show that 69% of
> the
> > climate change
> > since 1900 can be attributed to solar variation. Have
> any
> > of you climate
> > change experts seen this?
> >
> >
> >
> > --
> > William E (Bill) Hamilton Jr., Ph.D.
> > Member American Scientific Affiliation
> > Austin, TX
> > 248 821 8156
>
>
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Received on Wed Feb 11 13:52:06 2009