Re: [asa] $4 gas is here to stay

On 6/9/08, Don Winterstein <dfwinterstein@msn.com> wrote (in part):

> Time may eventually prove that our current civilization rests on a hydrocarbon bubble that's soon to deflate. I say deflate, not pop, because market forces will almost certainly lead to a less precipitous drop in hydrocarbon supply than Glenn considers: When supplies drop, prices will rise to the point where they will force behavioral changes that will lead to diminished usage. No one can predict the overall consequences, partly because the consequences will come from millions of individuals making their individual adjustments. >

Generally, I agree, except that people DO try to predict this stuff. I
have a fascinating DETAILED report from Bernstein published in Jan
2008 called "Abating Climate Change." They focus, of course, on how
to make money as the new technologies come on stream. Plug in hybrids
are seen as the road transport solution. Biofuels might get a small
share -- but plug ins, getting the equivalent of 75 mpg or better,
will prevail. The time frame, of course, will not be swift, for only
7% or so of the auto fleet is replaced each year.

They expect 50 hybrid models to be available by 2010 and by 2030 the
global fleet to consist of 365 million conventional cars and 924
million hybrids.

What we all may be missing in this discussion is that of
"technological breakthroughs." There are hundreds of thousands of
folks working on the problem today. To assume "status quo" in solving
the problem (which is very real and not going to go away soon) seems
to me to be myopic. Postulate, for example, a real battery
breakthrough next year -- and all bets today on plug in hybrids seem
wimpy. I know -- "betting on the come." Well, it is fun to speculate.

I like the Bernstein report because (1) it has numbers and (2) it
addresses the obvious limitations (like electric power for all those
plug in hybrids). They also address ALL energy sources, wind, fives
different photovoltaics, biofuels, nuclear plants, etc., making them
all fit together.

The next decade is going to be interesting!

Cheers

Burgy

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Received on Mon Jun 9 16:31:55 2008