Re: [asa] $4 gas is here to stay

On 6/5/08, Glenn Morton <glennmorton@entouch.net> wrote (in part):
>
 Steve Forbes said the other day that 80% of the rise
> in the price of oil was due to the falling dollar.

Forbes is also a GW denier. His credibility is about zero.

>Sean Hannity citing a USGS report which claims that there
> are huge volumes of oil in the Bakken formation of North Dakota thinks that
> we have enough oil there to run our nation's cars for several years. He
> doesn't seem to understand the difference between oil in place and what can
> be gotten out and moved to market.

Hannity is infamous for making issues simple enough to appeal to the
fanatic right. He also has about zero credibility.

> George Soros thinks oil is a bubble.

To some extent, I suspect that is true. But when the "bubble" deflates
oil prices are not going back to the $40 a barrel range. At least I
don't see that.
I
>
> I would be interested in what 'auto-propellents you are thinking of. I can
> think of none that will work. You are a physicist, Burgy, surely you have
> run the numbers comparing the amount of energy burned each day in oil vs the
> rate of rise of wind and solar. There is a huge disparity.

A fair question. I think I can give you a possible scenario -- let me
work on it. It is not short term of course, but by -- say -- 2020 --
electric cars may well be in a majority. And that's assuming no real
breakthroughs in battery technology.

Have you seen the specs on the new Tesla, for instance. Priced at
$98,000, it is hardly an answer -- but as a precurser of things to
come, it is an exciting development.

Electric cars, of course, will feed off the electric grid with most
recharging being done at night when the load is down.

I know -- the electricity still must be generated. And that's another story.
>

> ... in Houston now, I can walk into restaurants on a Saturday
> night which used to require an hour's wait and be seated immediately. People
> aren't eating out as much as they used to. I suspect that it is gas and food
> which are causing this change.

We notice this too -- and Houston has been impacted much less than the
rest of the country, as I understand.

How the future of all this will work out is an interesting debate. If
I look out to -- say -- 2050 -- I can forsee the complete demise of
oil as an auto propellent. But forecasting is a hard job --
particularly about the future!

Burgy
>
>

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Received on Fri Jun 6 14:50:58 2008