Re: [asa] Explanatory filter

> So, it seems to me that the ID people aren't totally out of school in
> suggesting that very improbable events like the random cooption of parts to
> make irreducibly complex molecular machines at least permits an inference
> that the event didn't happen by chance. If they were to suggest chance is
> entirely ruled out, I'd agree that would be out of school, however.

In popular marketing of ID, it is claimed (not merely suggested) that
chance is entirely ruled out. This is one of multiple points where
the ID movement makes internally inconsistent claims-is ID a
possibility worth considering that should not be a priori ruled out,
something with some interesting data but no real theory, a viable
alternative to conventional scientific views, or proven fact being
suppressed by a vast left-wing conspiracy? Different ID presentations
may claim any one of those.

Can one rule out ID-style intervention in any situation? No. Can one
rule out a highly improbable coincidence in any situation? Probably
not. Which is more reasonable in a given example? Depends on your
subjective judgement as well as on the situation.

There are various low-probability events in the course of evolution,
though ID probability estimates are probably consistently far too
low-as a rule, we don't have good constraints on the probability of
events of interest to ID. The selection of complex biochemical
systems, however, is an example (to use Dembski's metaphor) of
painting the target around the arrow after it's been shot. Just as
the video of the bat standing on end was specifically selected after
the fact as a particular low-probability event, the existence of a
particular complex molecular system is one among innumerable possible
low-probability events. Unless we can prove that the particular
low-probability event has some sort of unique significance relative to
the other possibilities, the conclusion of ID is not well-supported.
Any number of other atypical landing patterns of the bat would seem
remarkable, and myriad other DNA combinations would produce life,
though we have a much more thorough grasp of the range of
possibilities in the former case (varying bat configurations is
technologiclaly easier than manipulating huge chunks of DNA).

-- 
Dr. David Campbell
425 Scientific Collections
University of Alabama
"I think of my happy condition, surrounded by acres of clams"
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