Re: [asa] Explanatory filter

Yes, Steve, you identified it correctly. It really did happen. There are a
lot of fixed cameras in addition to the manned ones. When I was a boy
playing baseball the ends of the bats were convex instead of concave so it
would have been even less probable.

I just thought this was an interesting object lesson about how we normally
react when we encounter an extremely rare event. Probabilities are hard to
quantify. Now, if only someone had specified this complex occurence ahead of
time instead of commenting on it afterwards...

Randy

----- Original Message -----
From: "Stephen Matheson" <smatheso@calvin.edu>
To: <asa@calvin.edu>
Sent: Monday, May 26, 2008 12:37 PM
Subject: Re: [asa] Explanatory filter

> The batter was Martin Prado of the Atlanta Braves. The improbable event
> occurred in a game with the Mets in September of 2007. Discussion at the
> time centered on neither peculiar camera angles nor invisible strings, but
> on whether Prado's bat was oddly weighted. Personally, I think it's just
> an improbable event, sort of like an evangelical employing critical
> thought. I've ruled out chicanery, at least because that really is Keith
> Hernandez' voice.
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mart%C3%ADn_Prado
>
> Steve Matheson
>
>>>> "Randy Isaac" <randyisaac@comcast.net> 05/25/08 10:13 PM >>>
> How would we apply the explanatory filter to this video? Can we determine
> by probabilities whether it was edited? Or designed?
>
> http://www.collegehumor.com/video:1775904
>
> Randy
>
>
>
>
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Received on Mon May 26 16:13:54 2008