Re: [asa] Explanatory filter

David said:

> We could then test this hypothesis by hiring a ballplayer under similar
> conditions to try and make a thrown bat stand on end. I'm guessing he
> wouldn't be able to repeat it in a thousand tries.

well, since I'm guessing there are 40 AB's per game per team * 30 teams *
162 games / year, ... that's ~194400 AB's per year ... add in all the foul
balls where the batter drops his bat & comes back to the plate you are
talking around 200K per year ... so even at 1 in a million, we should expect
to see this scenario once every 5 years or so

Now, where are we going to find that guy to try this a million times? :-)

On 5/26/08, David Opderbeck <dopderbeck@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Not sure what you're asking. Was the video edited? Or was the event
> portrayed a result of "design' or "chance"? Two very different questions.
>
> Re: the video: you could do the simple and obtain an original clip of that
> at-bat from Major League Baseball (the have a database of every play
> during the season) and compare them. Or you could likely run an alogrithm
> of some sort on the code that comprises the digitial video file to determine
> whether there are any unusual insertions.
>
> Re: the bat / event Examine the bat -- the bat is thicker and heavier at
> one end for the purpose of being swung to hit a ball. Look at how the guy
> threw the bat -- angle, momentum, etc. and consider the composition and
> level of the surface ground. Get one of the NASA guys on this list to do
> the physics equations to determine the exact parameters for angular
> momentum, etc. necessary to stand a bat on end. Presumably those
> parameters are so narrow that we'd conclude it's highly unlikely that a
> person could purposefully cause a thrown bat to stand on end. We could
> then test this hypothesis by hiring a ballplayer under similar conditions to
> try and make a thrown bat stand on end. I'm guessing he wouldn't be able
> to repeat it in a thousand tries.
>
>
> On Sun, May 25, 2008 at 10:13 PM, Randy Isaac <randyisaac@comcast.net>
> wrote:
>
>> How would we apply the explanatory filter to this video? Can we
>> determine by probabilities whether it was edited? Or designed?
>>
>> http://www.collegehumor.com/video:1775904
>>
>> Randy
>>
>
>
>
> --
> David W. Opderbeck
> Associate Professor of Law
> Seton Hall University Law School
> Gibbons Institute of Law, Science & Technology

-- 
Steve Martin (CSCA)
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