Re: [asa] $4 gas is here to stay

Friends: Most all nations pay the same price for a given quality (light, sweet crude generally is more pricey than heavy sour crude) of crude oil on the open market. The primary difference in local prices of gasoline has to do with tax levies. Most European countries have had an aggressive tax policy toward the use of liquid fuels (over half of the pump price may be taxes), so they have developed alternative, more energy efficient methods of moving people around - public transit, light rail, heigh speed rail - than we in the US have done.
A number of knowledgeable people (Warren Buffet, Matt Simmons, Glenn Morton, the folks at the Assoc for the Study of Peak Oil, as well as others) have been trying to warn us that the ability of the world to produce oil is likely to reach a peak very soon and then go into decline. Most of these folks believe that we are right at peak about now, despite rosy forecasts by government agencies such as the USGS and EIA in the US and the IEA in Europe. The IEA is expected to revise their forecasts of the availability of crude oil downward in the near future.
So with the uproar over $4 gasoline here in the US, my advice is to get use to it and start making adjustments in living styles accordingly. If peak oil is now a reality, the only way that we will see a significant decline in the price of oil will be the onset of a worldwide recession or worse, which will lead to a reduction in the demand for oil. But such declines will likely be short-lived as demand recovers.
We here in the US are very poorly positioned for the onset of global peak oil, mainly because we have refused to face up to the reality of its coming. We have no realistic energy, transportation, or agricultural policies in place that can meaningfully address the impacts and consequences of peak oil. The cries to drill more (ANWR, coastal shelf) will not save us and may make things worse in the sense that we again refuse to change the way we live.
We truly need to need to undertake a monumental shift toward an energy system that is based on renewable (and I don't mean ethanol from corn) technologies. Until we begin to do that and even when we do that, conservation must become our by-word and our practice.
ken piers

Ken Piers

"We are by nature creatures of faith, as perhaps all creatures are; we live by counting on things that cannot be proved. As creatures of faith, we must choose either to be religious or superstitious, to believe in things that cannot be proved or to believe in things that can be disproved."
Wendell Berry

>>> "Terry M. Gray" <grayt@lamar.colostate.edu> 5/22/2008 11:42 PM >>>
Speaking of $4 gas.

Can someone explain to me why we should be bothered by $4/gallon gas
in light of the world economy?

Prices in Europe historically are at least twice that. See http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/gas1.html

Is the difference the way Europeans and others with higher prices tax
gas? Or is it a matter of local supply?

I'm wondering why all our politicians aren't facing the issue head-on.

TG

On May 22, 2008, at 4:51 PM, Dave Wallace wrote:

> http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/22/news/companies/ford/index.htm?cnn=yes
>
>
> Ford's trouble: $4 gas is here to stay
>
>
> Gas prices are causing consumers to shun pickups and SUVs, leading
> to losses at the car maker's North American auto unit.
>
> The article goes on to say that Ford expects the price to remain
> where it is for next 18 months or so. Yesterday I paid 5.40 a
> gallon for diesel fuel in Kingston, Canada, This energy crunch
> should encourage alternate development as well as conservation.
> Question is it early and drastic enough to reduce the carbon going
> into the atmosphere??? Who knows how things will play out. We want
> to visit our daughter in Oklahoma in early December. I priced train
> travel and it is almost as expensive as air is currently and train
> is much more expensive if you don't want to sit in a passenger seat
> for 36 hours or more. We certainly need to run more passenger
> trains and lay down track, likely that was ripped up a few years ago
> but often making lines dual track and or having dedicated passenger
> tracks.
> Wish we got fuel for the US price up here in the frozen north, or at
> least I do when I fill up but not when I think of global warming.
> Today has been so cold in the cottage that I had to run a radiant
> heater towards me. Unfortunately I left my long johns and winter
> clothes at home in Ottawa.
> It sure would have helped the public image had the climate models
> included the oceanic temperature effect which may slow down or stop
> warming over the next decade or so. The newspaper columnists here
> tend to scoff at global warming except those who in all their
> thinking are far to the left of some current executive candidates in
> the US. These columnists seem to want anything that allows the
> government to spend the GDP rather than individuals except of course
> no armed forces.
>
> Dave W (asa member)
>
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe, send a message to majordomo@calvin.edu with
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________________
Terry M. Gray, Ph.D.
Computer Support Scientist
Chemistry Department
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523
(o) 970-491-7003 (f) 970-491-1801

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Received on Fri May 23 07:44:13 2008