Re: [asa] A Sustainable Future and Exponential growth

On the other hand, some will continue to hold tightly to their
"sustainability" beliefs:

*"If you were sufficiently motivated," Shostak said, "you could in fact keep
it going forever."

*Human evolution at the crossroads
Genetics, cybernetics complicate forecast for species
By Alan Boyle Science editor
Mon., May. 2, 2005
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7103668/

Lynn

On 5/18/08, philtill@aol.com <philtill@aol.com> wrote:
>
>
> Anybody want to toast eternal progress?
>
>
> As they say in stock trading, "no tree grows to the sky."
>
>
> Phil
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: D. F. Siemens, Jr. <dfsiemensjr@juno.com>
> To: dopderbeck@gmail.com
> Cc: wmdavid.wallace@gmail.com; asa@calvin.edu
> Sent: Sat, 17 May 2008 11:38 pm
> Subject: Re: [asa] A Sustainable Future and Exponential growth
>
> Regarding progress in taking care of a larger population, I note that
> there is already a shortage of safe water in many parts of the world. They
> are treating sea water in the Near East, with the resultant increase in
> greenhouse gases. But there are additional problems like Myanmar at the
> present moment, and the area of the Chinese earthquake. A little disruption
> and many people have their supply of clean water disrupted. As to food
> production, a drought can reduce the food in large areas of Africa. On the
> other hand, I just saw a report that an area in the US is late getting the
> corn planted because the fields are too wet, with the consequence that the
> yield will be reduced even as demand increases. As an additional problem,
> there is talk of using corn stalks, straw and other crop residue to produce
> ethanol. But this reduces the humus in the soil, with a negative effect on
> fertility and conservation. I suspect that every optimistic prediction can
> be countered by a pessim istic report.
>
> As for colonizing other planets, you can cook on Mercury and Venus, get
> crushed on any of the gas giants, but maybe get a purchase on Mars. There is
> a vanishing likelihood on some minor planets. Assuming that Mars can be made
> habitable, how do we transport billions of earthlings there? I recall an
> estimate that a trip to the nearest star in a possible time would require
> fueling a space ship with the mass of the earth. I don't think there is any
> hope of getting out of the solar system except in science fiction.
>
> My guess for a solution to the population problem is more likely to be an
> epidemic. I note that we seem to be losing the battle against bacteria,
> which are more and more resistant to all antibiotics. Then there are
> zoonoses like AIDS and bird flu. Anybody want to toast eternal progress?
> Dave (ASA)
>
> On Sat, 17 May 2008 22:21:30 -0400 "David Opderbeck" <dopderbeck@gmail.com>
> writes:
>
> Dave W. -- if the eschaton is delayed a billion years into the future, I
> doubt we'll have to worry about overcrowding the earth. We'd have colonized
> other planets by then and we'd probably have learned how to upload our minds
> into computers. I'm getting old and cranky though, so I don't think the
> Lord will tarry a billion years.
>
>
> On Sat, May 17, 2008 at 6:11 PM, Dave Wallace <wmdavid.wallace@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> David Opderbeck wrote:
>>
>>> Ken, it seems to me that the Smail article just rehashes the Malthusian
>>> fallacy that technology must remain static while population grows. For
>>> example, Smail says this: /"Clearly, assertions that the Earth might be
>>> able to support a population of 10 to 15 billion people for an indefinite
>>> period of time at a standard of living superior to the present are not only
>>> cruelly misleading but almost certainly false." / Why is this so clear and
>>> certain? Smail doesn't say. (Rhetorically, whenever someone uses the words
>>> "clearly" and "certainly" in the same sentence, it's likely that the actual
>>> evidence is neither clear nor certain).
>>> It's quite possible that agricultural biotechnology will indeed enable us
>>> to feed 10 to 15 billion people indefinitely; it's also quite possible that
>>> communications technology will facilitate a global economy in which that
>>> many people; and it's also quite possible that new technology will
>>> substantially change the "peak energy" curve. The market demand for all
>>> this will continue to grow (with population growth), and market demand tends
>>> to drive technological progress. At the very least, it seems impossible to
>>> say what is "clear" or "certain" to be the case 50, 100 or 150 years from
>>> now technologically. Moreover, technological progress and diffusion tends
>>> to result in a reduction in average birth rates, as people move from
>>> traditional agricultural societies into more advanced technological ones.
>>>
>> David
>> I think your dismissal of population growth is too facile. Sure
>> technology may enable us to feed 10 to 15 billion people on the earth but
>> lets consider the scenario that the earths population continues to grow by a
>> very modest amount of 1% a year and that the eschaton is delayed for a
>> billion years into the future. I think it is clear that the earth could not
>> sustain the population sometime during that period. Certainly companies can
>> not grow their profit by 10% for an indefinite period, lots have tried and
>> failed. In a physical world exponential growth or die off is not
>> containable after suitable periods of time. If you disagree maybe you
>> could give me 1 cent on the first square of a chess board, 2 on the 2nd, 4
>> on the 3rd, 8 on the 4th and so on.
>> Seriously if the return of Christ is delayed then Christians would need to
>> consider how to control population either from a total die off or from an
>> explosion. I suggest this is a topic worthy of consideration on this list.
>>
>> Dave W
>>
>> (I have changed my email address for this mailing list as I was regularly
>> missing email from David O, Rich, PVM... but others were coming through just
>> fine. My old email addresses work fine as far as I can tell for other mail,
>> just not for the asa list, certainly Rich can through fine when he sent me
>> mail offlist. The support staff at hotmail ignore pleas for help and do not
>> even answer my emails. For some reason now I do not seem to get a copy of
>> posts that I make but I can see them on the archieve so I assume they are
>> getting through.)
>>
>>
>>
>> To unsubscribe, send a message to majordomo@calvin.edu with
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>>
>
>
>
> --
> David W. Opderbeck
> Associate Professor of Law
> Seton Hall University Law School
> Gibbons Institute of Law, Science & Technology
>
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Received on Mon May 19 00:14:30 2008