Re: [asa] FW: Temperature Monitors Report Widescale Global Cooling

This is not about CO2 but about how a "trend" is created by arbitrarily
picking two points on a graph. The kind of analysis done by the skeptics is
both sloppy and dishonest. Didn't they learn least mean squares in High
School? BTW, if you did do that over the last three decades you get a
consistent +0.1 degree C per decade secular trend. To do a real analysis it
is sometimes helpful to look at it using maps. Comparing January 2007 and
January 2008 illustrates both the natural and anthropogenic variability.
First some predicted effects due to La Nina and El Nino:

During La Nina: Mid-latitude low pressure systems tend to be weaker than
normal in the region of the Gulf of Alaska, during a **cold weather winter.
This favors the build-up of colder than normal air over Alaska and western
Canada, which often penetrates into the northern Great Plains and the
western United States. The southeastern United States, on the other hand,
becomes warmer and drier than normal.

During El Nino: During a warm episode winter, mid-latitude low pressure
systems tend to be more vigorous than normal in the region of the eastern
North Pacific. These systems pump abnormally warm air into western Canada,
Alaska and the extreme northern portion of the contiguous United States.
Storms also tend to be more vigorous in the Gulf of Mexico and along the
southeast coast of the United States resulting in wetter than normal
conditions in that region.

You can distinguish an El Nino from a La Nina by looking at the SST of the
equatorial waters just west of South America. High latitudes are relatively
insensitive to these effects.

Now let's look at the maps:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2007/jan/map_blended_mntp_01_2007_pg.gif
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008/jan/map-blended-mntp-200801-pg.gif

Looking at the El Nino region you clearly see El Nino in 2007 and La Nina in
2008. You see the cooling in the mid latitudes in Eurasia but a decidedly
less pronounced one in North America. High latitudes show consistent
amplification due to anthropogenic warming in both years.

This is as good as it gets, folks. We are in La Nina AND solar minimum. Once
we go back to another El Nino pattern and we get more solar input due to the
sun spot cycle going back to maximum, we will have both the natural and
anthropogenic variability reinforcing rather than canceling. This is behind
the it's going to be really bad in five years forecast from NOAA.

Where the skeptics have a hole in their understanding is their apparent
inability to distinguish a cyclical versus a secular trend. Solar
variability and ENSO are both semi-regular cyclical trends (that's why the
last word in the acronym is oscillation). So, yes, there is some downturn
right now (for one month!) but you extrapolate such a cyclical trend at your
own risk. A secular trend on the other hand -- like AGW -- is like the
Eveready Bunny. It just keeps going and going.

Rich Blinne, Member ASA

On Wed, Feb 27, 2008 at 3:31 PM, <Fivefree@aol.com> wrote:

> "This is cherry-picking of the worst sort."
> **
> *Or perhaps others are right and CO2 is nothing but a trace gas... *
> **
> **
> Jack Jackson
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
> Delicious ideas to please the pickiest eaters. Watch the video on AOL
> Living.<http://living.aol.com/video/how-to-please-your-picky-eater/rachel-campos-duffy/2050827?NCID=aolcmp00300000002598>
>

To unsubscribe, send a message to majordomo@calvin.edu with
"unsubscribe asa" (no quotes) as the body of the message.
Received on Wed Feb 27 20:12:07 2008