[asa] Question on speciation

A biological species is a population that is reproductively isolated from other species -- while interbreeding may be possible, such unions don't produce fertile offspring.

I have heard it said that speciation usually takes place in small, isolated populations.

Here's my question: Suppose one individual carries a mutation that makes him/her reproductively isolated from the members of his (former) species. Then in order for this new species to propagate, a member of the opposite sex in the same population must carry the same mutation. And of course the two must mate. Whatever the probability of the mutation in question is, say p, the probability of two individuals carrying the same mutation is p^2, where I have used ^ to signify exponentiation. Isn't this an incredibly small probability?
 
William E. (Bill) Hamilton, Ph.D.
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Received on Fri Feb 1 13:04:02 2008