Re: [asa] NASA Administrator Michael Griffin Not Sure That Global Warming Is A Problem

The paper in question is well worth reading as it shows how science is
 doing the hard work and showing support for Gore's 'meme'
My thanks to Janice for pointing us to this really interesting paper
on global warming. No wonder the pope and recently GW seem to be
jumping on the bandwagon since doing otherwise would be political, and
scientific 'suicide'.

Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 6, 12549-12610, 2006
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/7/2287/2007/acp-7-2287-2007.pdf

Abstract. We investigate the issue of "dangerous human-made
interference with climate" using simulations with GISS modelE driven
by measured or estimated forcings for 1880–2003 and extended to 2100
for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the "alternative"
scenario of Hansen and Sato (2004). Identification of "dangerous"
effects is partly subjective, but we find evidence that added global
warming of more than 1°C above the level in 2000 has effects that may
be highly disruptive. The alternative scenario, with peak added
forcing ~1.5 W/m2 in 2100, keeps further global warming under 1°C if
climate sensitivity is ~3°C or less for doubled CO2. The alternative
scenario keeps mean regional seasonal warming within 2σ (standard
deviations) of 20th century variability, but other scenarios yield
regional changes of 5–10σ, i.e., mean conditions outside the range of
local experience. We discuss three specific sub-global topics: Arctic
climate change, tropical storm intensification, and ice sheet
stability. We suggest that Arctic climate change has been driven as
much by pollutants (O3, its precursor CH4, and soot) as by CO2,
offering hope that dual efforts to reduce pollutants and slow CO2
growth could minimize Arctic change. Simulated recent ocean warming in
the region of Atlantic hurricane formation is comparable to
observations, suggesting that greenhouse gases (GHGs) may have
contributed to a trend toward greater hurricane intensities.
Increasing GHGs cause significant warming in our model in submarine
regions of ice shelves and shallow methane hydrates, raising concern
about the potential for accelerating sea level rise and future
positive feedback from methane release. Growth of non-CO2 forcings has
slowed in recent years, but CO2 emissions are now surging well above
the alternative scenario. Prompt actions to slow CO2 emissions and
decrease non-CO2 forcings are needed to achieve the low forcing of the
alternative scenario.

Written by

Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study

J. Hansen1,2, M. Sato2, R. Ruedy3, P. Kharecha2, A. Lacis1,4, R.
Miller1,5, L. Nazarenko2, K. Lo3, G. A. Schmidt1,4, G. Russell1, I.
Aleinov2, S. Bauer2, E. Baum6, B. Cairns5, V. Canuto1, M. Chandler2,
Y. Cheng3, A. Cohen6, A. Del Genio1,4, G. Faluvegi2, E. Fleming7, A.
Friend8, T. Hall1,5, C. Jackman7, J. Jonas2, M. Kelley8, N. Y. Kiang1,
D. Koch2, G. Labow7, J. Lerner2, S. Menon, T. Novakov, V. Oinas3, Ja.
Perlwitz5, Ju. Perlwitz2, D. Rind1,4, A. Romanou1,4, R. Schmunk3, D.
Shindell1,4, P. Stone, S. Sun1, D. Streets, N. Tausnev3, D. Thresher4,
N. Unger2, M. Yao3, and S. Zhang2
1NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA
2Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, New York, USA
3Sigma Space Partners LLC, New York, New York, USA
4Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University,
New York, New York, USA
5Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia
University, New York, New York, USA
6Clean Air Task Force, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
7NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
8Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Orme des
Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, France

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Received on Fri Jun 1 13:36:59 2007