Re: [asa] Re: Ages of the patriarchs

*The number sequence turns out to be 1 to 100,000 in perfect numerical
sequence. What are the odds? ....... Now let's say the number sequence
appears to be random in accordance with what we would expect and the
computer records that particular sequence. Whatever the sequence of numbers
turned out to be, the odds are just as great that that particular sequence
would occur as the afore mentioned 1 to 100,000.*

I'm no mathemetician or statistician either, but I do know that you have to
go beyond the basic initial probability calculation to test the hypothesis
that {1.....100,000} in perfect numerical sequence represents a random
occurrence. If we applied a chi-square test or some other statistical test,
I'm sure we'd be able to reject the null hypothesis that {1....100,000} in
perfect numerical squence represents a random sequence, with a very high
degree of confidence.

On 2/22/07, dickfischer@earthlink.net <dickfischer@earthlink.net> wrote:
>
> Hi Iain, you wrote:
>
> >>Interesting take. So the MT is garbage, right?<<
>
> No, if your information is flawed your conclusions are flawed. Plus, what
> does it signify? If there is a pattern in the numbers, therefore they were
> all manipulated? If there is a pattern in the numbers therefore they must
> be true? If there is a pattern in the numbers therefore we have proof that
> God himself dictated the numbers? In other words, tell me what a pattern
> proves and why.
>
> Here's what I know about numbers games. Say you had a sporting event and
> the stadium seated 100,000 patrons. Let's say that the tickets were mailed
> out all over the world and that at game time all filed through a gate. When
> the tickets are collected the numbers on the tickets are read into a
> computer in the order that the fans filed through the gate. The number
> sequence turns out to be 1 to 100,000 in perfect numerical sequence. What
> are the odds? What's your conclusion? Manipulation? A miracle?
>
> Now let's say the number sequence appears to be random in accordance with
> what we would expect and the computer records that particular sequence.
> Whatever the sequence of numbers turned out to be, the odds are just as
> great that that particular sequence would occur as the afore mentioned 1 to
> 100,000. Except that now you aren't thinking it was anything exceptional.
>
> The only way we could attach some significance to a number sequence is if
> we had advance warning that IF such a sequence occurs then it would signify
> thus and such. After the fact proves nothing.
>
> See, you don't have to be a mathematician, just smart.
>
> ~Dick
>
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Received on Thu Feb 22 20:15:23 2007