Re: [asa] Global Warming, Ethics, and the Precautionary Principle

On 1/25/07, David Opderbeck <dopderbeck@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> *But, there is a consensus and thus we can do policy based on traditional
> risk assessment*
>
> Rich, I think it's fair to say there is a consensus that warming is real
> and has anthropogenic causes, and also that there is a consensus that the
> range of possible future scenarios over the next 100 years runs from
> serious-but-manageable to catastrophic. Thus, there is not a consensus that
> the potential harm *necessarily* will be catastrophic. Given that, public
> policy concerning warming has thus far relied at least implicitly on the
> precautionary principle. Kyoto in particular is an example of this.
>

When Kyoto was adopted that was certainly true. But as I said before we
don't need to continue living by that standard. Here's how CCSP has been
looking at the problem of policy under uncertainty that doesn't oversimplify
to whoever can come up with the worst case scenario wins no matter how
unlikely it is. We certainly need to be better than the one hit wonder of
Kyoto.

*

CCSP Decision-Support Goals
**

Decision-Support Goal 1*: Prepare scientific syntheses and

assessments to support informed discussion of climate

variability and change and associated issues by decisionmakers,

stakeholders, the media, and the general public.
*

Decision-Support Goal 2*: Develop resources to support adaptive

management and planning for responding to climate variability

and climate change, and transition these resources from

research to operational application.
*

Decision-Support Goal 3*: Develop and evaluate methods

(scenario evaluations, integrated analyses, and alternative

analytical approaches) to support climate change policymaking

and demonstrate these methods with case studies.
*

Strategic Research Questions
*

9.1 What are the magnitudes, interrelationships, and significance of the
primary

human drivers of, and their potential impact on, global environmental

change?

9.2 What are the current and potential future impacts of global
environmental

variability and change on human welfare, what factors influence the capacity

of human societies to respond to change, and how can resilience be increased

and vulnerability reduced?

9.3 How can the methods and capabilities for societal decisionmaking under

conditions of complexity and uncertainty about global environmental

variability and change be enhanced?

9.4 What are the potential human health effects of global environmental
change,

and what climate, socioeconomic, and environmental information is needed

to assess the cumulative risk to health from these effects?

See Chapter 11 of the *Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science
Program *for detailed discussion

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Received on Thu Jan 25 21:44:26 2007