Re: [asa] Pictures of a Warming Planet

On 1/15/07, Janice Matchett <janmatch@earthlink.net> wrote:
>
> At 06:19 PM 1/15/2007, Rich Blinne wrote:
>
> Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words. The question is whether
> there is global warming and whether anthropogenic greenhouse gases caused
> it. The temperature trend by itself doesn't answer the question. But, there
> is also a trend for higher nighttime lows and lower stratospheric
> temperatures (with two spikes for volcanic eruptions). Both of these trends
> speak against solar forcing as a cause. The fact that CO2 went way up in the
> same time frames also speaks volumes. See the graphs for yourself here:
>
>
> http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2007/01/13/weekinreview/20070114_BASICS_GRAPHIC.html
>
>
>
> *@ *http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/
>
> Note the increase in temperature a few years ago -- coinciding with all
> the hysteria about GW. Also note where the temperatures appear to be
> heading. A cooler, wetter period is predicted -- it'll be interesting to see
> how GW Henny Pennys spin that into their apocalyptic scenarios. ~ Janice
>
> http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/pdo_warm_cool3.jpg
>
> http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/img/pdo_latest.png
>
>
> *The "Pacific Decadal Oscillation" (PDO) is a long-lived El Niño-like
> pattern of Pacific climate variability.*
>

From http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

Updated standardized values for the PDO index, derived as the
leading PC of monthly SST anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean,
poleward of 20N. *The monthly mean global average SST anomalies
are removed to separate this pattern of variability from any
"global warming" signal that may be present in the data.*

What does that signal look like that they removed? See here:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/sst/ersst3.gif

So, yes, there are oscillations but it is on a signal that is up and to the
right for the 20th Century and the early 21st. So, mean global SST
is increasing giving further evidence for global warming. But, this is all
moot because all of this is off topic. Note the word PACIFIC. This is not a
global phenomomen. Note the words DECADAL OSCILLATION. If the oscillation
period is in decades then you shouldn't see the temperature (both surface
and sea surface) increase over the period of a century. Look at the NOAA
graph of global SST. The increasing signal is overwhelming any oscillating
one and that's why the PDO graphs you cited remove the increasing signal in
order to study the oscillation in more detail.

And tell me how did PDO cool the stratosphere? How does PDO account for
higher nighttime low temperatures? Both of these phenomena are the result of
greater insulation effects in the atmosphere and are why scientists look at
these to see if greenhouse gases -- specifically CO2 which has gone up
approximately 35% in the last century -- are causing global warming. The
answer this data gives is an overwhelming YES.

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Received on Mon, 15 Jan 2007 18:47:37 -0700