Re: vaccine prioritization during a pandemic

If the bird flu becomes pandemic, I am sure the fatality
rate will progressively drop. As you said the numbers are
small, and the resources in those areas are limited.

But what if the fatality rate is 10%? 5%?

When I first heard this proposal I was curious about the
14 to 40 age group. That seemed arbitrary to me, and
disturbing. The point is, as George points out, that if
this happens there is going to be a real limitation on who
can be vaccinated, someone is going to have to make
choices. But what is the criteria?

Looking at the data from 1918, immunizing the healthy 14
to 40 year olds, is going to give the most "bang for the
buck" if the pandemic has a W shaped fatality curve, but
not if it is U shaped.

As far as Christian deontology, are we obligated to help
the poor and disadvantaged if we dont have the resources
to do so? If resources are limited would Christ command
us to take care of those first at the expense of everyone
else?

On Thu, 18 May 2006 11:23:32 -0400
  "Dick Fischer" <dickfischer@verizon.net> wrote:
> Hi Jack, you wrote:
>
>>>No one knows why that pandemic killed so many people,
>>>that were
> otherwise
> healthy from the ages of 15 to 50, ages that are usually
>protected from
> fatality.<<
>
> My grandfather and grandmother (before I was born
>naturally) both caught
> the 1918 flu and I remember him telling me that the
>strongest and
> healthiest died from it. One factor could be that
>otherwise healthy
> individuals would continue to work even while suffering
>from flu. My
> grandparents were bed ridden and survived.
>
> Although the mortality rate is high so far for those who
>have come down
> with bird flu, the numbers affected are very low and the
>quality of care
> received in third world countries would be suspect. If
>the flu evolves
> to the point that it can spread from person to person it
>may also evolve
> to a less virulent form.
>
> Dick Fischer
> Dick Fischer, Genesis Proclaimed Association
>Finding Harmony in Bible, Science, and History
> www.genesisproclaimed.org
><http://www.genesisproclaimed.org/>
Received on Thu May 18 11:43:55 2006