>>> "D. F. Siemens, Jr." <dfsiemensjr@juno.com> 01/05/06 10:58 PM >>>
On Thu, 05 Jan 2006 14:08:15 -0500 "Al Koop" <koopa@gvsu.edu> writes:
> TV: (there is also the "limits of growth" but the dire
> predictions of the Club of Rome have not come true).
>
> AK: But I think the Club of Rome projection were based a 100 year
> long scenario. They still have another 65 years before you can
> declare them wrong. I am still sticking with the basic projections
> of the Club of Rome.
>
I recall a survey of various projections many years ago. Sorry I can't
give the date, but it was in /Science/. The analysis noted that, no
matter how optimistic the entries, the Club of Rome projections was dire
in a relatively short time. Nothing could make it positive, only slow
down the catastrophe slightly.
Dave.
AK: I am not sure what you are saying here. I have a copy of the Limits to Growth-The 30 year Update. In 1972 they were predicting an end to growth only sometime in the 21st century.
I quote: The end of growth, in whatever form, seemed to us to be a very distant prospect in 1972. All World3 scenarios in LTG showed growth in population continuing well past the year 2000. Even in the most pessimistic LTG scenario the material standard of living kept increasing all the way to 2015. Thus LTG placed the end of growth almost 50 years after the publication of the book. [End of Quote]
They claim they are more pessimistic now than they were in 1972!
Received on Fri Jan 6 00:08:21 2006
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.8 : Fri Jan 06 2006 - 00:08:21 EST