Re: Energy Policy / Junk Science Environmentalism

Also, how much energy does it cost to extract deuterium, lithium, and
uranium from seawater? These are all potential fuels and apparently
abundant.

----- Original Message -----
From: "Peter Cook" <pwcook@optonline.net>
To: "Al Koop" <koopa@gvsu.edu>; <glennmorton@entouch.net>;
<dfwinterstein@msn.com>
Cc: <asa@calvin.edu>
Sent: Tuesday, January 03, 2006 10:56 PM
Subject: Re: Energy Policy / Junk Science Environmentalism

> Question: as we look at alternatives, does anyone know the costs, in
> energy,
> of using some of these alternatives? Hydrogen - where will get get it, and
> what will it cost in energy? For that matter, with hybrid cars now getting
> some govenrment support through tax incentives, has anyone done a study on
> what the overall enery cost of a hybrid car is, counting not just the MPG
> in
> its operation, but also the enegy required to manufacture, as opposed to
> the
> energy to manufacture conventional vehicles? While such vehicles may be
> efficient in operation, what about the overall picture from an energy
> perspective.
>
> Comment: regarding executive optimism, is it possible that even a bit of
> this optimism stems from a certain conflict of interest? May executives
> are
> compensated on the basis of company performance, either through bonuses or
> stock options, and while I may be wrong, it would seem that stating that
> we
> are heading for a crisis that "my company" cannot solve might have a
> negative effect on such compensation. I have no knowledge of any of the
> oil
> executive who have been cited on this, but it seems that such a conflict
> may
> exist withoug their even really seeing it.
>
> Pete Cook.
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Al Koop" <koopa@gvsu.edu>
> To: <glennmorton@entouch.net>; <dfwinterstein@msn.com>
> Cc: <asa@calvin.edu>
> Sent: Monday, December 26, 2005 12:01 AM
> Subject: Re: Energy Policy / Junk Science Environmentalism
>
>
>> DW: Recent news reports say Saudi Arabia is willing and able (if
> necessary) to raise its production significantly, by from one to 3 million
> barrels a day, as I recall. Glenn and others question whether they can do
> it. Probably no one knows for sure, but it's clear that someone at a
> fairly
> high level in the business over there believes they can. Can other major
> producers also raise output? Glenn believes Kuwait and (I think) also
> Mexico won't be able to, but there are several others. I suspect Iraq
> will
> be able to if and when the country stabilizes. Maybe also Iran and
> Russia.
> Chevron's CEO expects his company to raise output by half a million
> barrels
> a day by 2008; and from what I've heard, Exxon is also optimistic in this
> respect. Much of this adds up to a possibility, at least, that the supply
> crunch will come later rather than sooner. A lot, of course, depends on
> how
> rapidly production declines among those who are unable to raise it.
>>
>> AK: It would be great if it were all the petroleum engineers and
> geologists that were predicting more oil production as opposed to the top
> executives. I haven't found any evidence and data that can be used to
> justify their predictions. ASPO puts out fairly detailed estimates of oil
> production for each of 40 countries or so. I would like to see Chevron or
> Exxon put out a similar report with their version of oil production for
> comparison. All I can find are sweeping statements that tell us not to
> worry and that oil reserves are increasing. If I remember correctly, 33
> of
> the top 48 oil producing countries are now in declining production. Most
> optimistic reports indicate places where new fields have been found and
> new
> fields are being brought online, but they devote almost no space to
> specific
> estimates of the rate of decline. We need not only to find new fields to
> meet the increasing demands of a growing population and of growing
> development in places like China and Ind!
>> ia, we need to replace the loss of oil production in these 33 countries
>> on
> top of that. Show me more than 3 sentences from some top executives
> describing a rosy scenario.
>>
>>
>> DW: Only time will tell whether these countries/companies can do what
>> they
> claim. But what does this say about prophecies of imminent doom? While
> it's fairly urgent for people to start working on alternatives to
> hydrocarbons, it might be best to soft pedal the prophecies of doom lest
> they lose credibility if and when the Saudis (and others) come to the
> rescue
> and the world continues to sail on with higher prices and therefore
> somewhat
> curtailed demand but otherwise pretty much unaffected. On the other hand,
> if the countries/companies come up short, the doomsayers will gain
> credibility.
>>
>> AK: What do you mean by imminent doom? Granted some people argue the
> peak has already hit, but I think most of those who are concerned think
> that
> it will happen sometime within the next 10 years--is that imminent enough?
> Since you agree that it is urgent that we begin working on alternatives,
> how
> are we going to make it clear that working hard on alternative energy
> sources now is the only prudent thing we can do, and it may already be too
> late to avoid a severe economic downturn from dropping oil reserves. How
> do
> we convince the general public that we have to start ramping up the supply
> of alternative energy resources immediately if we have top executives
> telling us not to worry for decades?
>>
>>
>> DW: Price of oil from unconventional sources depends strongly on what
> source you're talking about. In some cases production costs are
> insensitive
> to the price of oil. The very fact that companies seriously ramp up
> production in many plays (e.g., tar sands, heavy oil) when prices rise is
> proof that high product prices increase both profits and production.
> Throughout the oil industry there are examples of additional production
> resulting from higher product prices. On the other hand, some
> alternatives--e.g., hydrogen and ethanol--may never be truly
> cost-effective.
> (I'm skeptical that they'll ever be able to make a profit on oil from
> shale
> with prices at $30 per barrel, as your Web reference says; but at least
> this
> time they aren't talking about freezing the rock around heated wells!)
>>
>> AK: Sure the tar sands are a source, but I think the production is now
> about 1 million barrels a day and they hope to increase that to 2 million
> barrels a day by 2010. The question is how fast this oil product can be
> produced even if there are 1 trillion barrels there. A second question
> relates to the amount of environmental damage this method causes. A third
> question is whether all the natural resources needed will be available to
> increase production. I think there are serious questions whether the
> currently known methods of obtaining energy will be sufficient to meet the
> world's needs in the near future. The uncertainties are such that no one
> can
> honestly claim that we are in good shape.
>>
>> I do not think that anybody out there can assure the world that our
>> energy
> needs will be covered over the next 20 years. It isn't a sure thing that
> we
> have the technology and resources to increase supplies if only we have the
> will. I won't rule out some breakthroughs and some new discoveries that
> possibly could bail us out for a generation or so, but I don't think
> anyone
> knows now what these breakthroughs might be, and I don't think we have
> enough good reasons to expect that they have more than a minor chance of
> happening.
>>
>> Finally, I think we pretty much agree that there is a problem. What
> bothers me is that it seems that if someone can establish that a tiny bit
> of
> doubt exists for a situation, many among the general public then take the
> view that any contrary position is equally valid. I therefore see almost
> no
> possibility that we will take up any long term planning to alleviate
> future
> energy problems. Only when there is a crisis will any significant action
> be
> taken, and then it will be too late for a soft landing. Unless somebody
> makes a great breakthrough using the meager resources now devoted to
> alternative energy, we will experience some pretty severe consequences.
>>
>
>
Received on Wed Jan 4 08:29:42 2006