Re: Behe, Snoke Article

>Would any of you like to comment on this article?<

What's the probability of the invention of the automobile?

100%-it has already happened.

What's the probability that the automobile would be invented, given a
situation similar to Earth in the Neolithic?

If you give a prehistoric think tank a chunk of iron ore and directions
to the tar pit, they are unlikely to come up with a modern auto plant.
However, the invention of a wheel is not too unlikely, and the idea of
making a cart is not a big step from there, and the idea of finding a
way to power it is not a big step from there.

Also, it makes a big difference whether you are looking for a 56 DeSoto
versus looking for any sort of self-propelled wheeled vehicle.

The same problems apply to the ID attempts to assign low probability to
biochemical structures. First, it's a hypothetical situation with
poorly known (e.g., what are the probabilities?) and poorly defined
(e.g., what starting conditions?) parameters.

Secondly, direct assembly is an unrealistically improbable model in
most cases, but stepwise processes are plausible and much more likely.
Also, the probability of a single event is much higher when the large
number of relevant organisms is considered (any of billions of people
could have ideas for wheels or useful mutations, for example).

Thirdly, there are numerous ways to get a functionally equivalent
result.

----------------------------------------
Dr. David Campbell
425 Scientific Collections
University of Alabama, Box 870345
Tuscaloosa AL 35487
"James gave the huffle of a snail in
danger But no one heard him at all" A.
A. Milne
Received on Fri Jul 15 14:57:35 2005